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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | GDP Growth Rate: A Crown of Thorns -Subodh Varma

GDP Growth Rate: A Crown of Thorns -Subodh Varma

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published Published on Sep 2, 2018   modified Modified on Sep 2, 2018
-Newsclick.in

It is bizarre that the recent GDP numbers are being celebrated even as there are no jobs, workers wages are frozen and farmers are demanding better prices.

There is much celebration in government circles and, of course, in the mainstream media, that in the first quarter of 2018-19 (April to June 2018), the GDP growth rate picked up to touch 8.2% compared with the same quarter last year (April to June 2017). There is talk and tweets on “Modi ji’s astute leadership” and India being catapulted on to “the path of unparalleled Growth Story” (whatever that means)ne. One is hearing the same old refrain that India is the ‘fastest growing economy’, etc.

Two things need to be noted amidst this rather extraordinarily hyped exuberance. The first is a sort of statistical point of order, while the second is a far more serious contextualising of these numbers.

First, take a look at the chart below which shows quarterly growth since the beginning of 2016-17. The current 8.2% growth rate  is in relation to what the GDP growth rate was in the first quarter of last year, which – as you will note in the chart – was a period of slump. Growth had petered down to just 5.6% in that quarter. As anyone with a rudimentary sense of numbers will realise, growth in comparison to  a low starting point will always be higher. Economists call this the base effect.

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Newsclick.in, 1 September, 2018, https://www.newsclick.in/gdp-growth-rate-crown-thorns


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