Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 150
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 151
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::index() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 151
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Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
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Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
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Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 97
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

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    <h1 class="cat-box-title">GDP numbers have brought cheer, but Indian economy needs a more even path to growth -Radhika Pandey, Amey Sapre and Pramod Sinha</h1>
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                            <div align="justify">-ThePrint.in<br /><br /><em>Growing CAD, weak bank deposit growth, and fiscal deficit surpassing estimates cause for worry.<br /></em><br />The Central Statistics Office (CSO) recently released the Second Advance Estimates (2nd AE) for 2017-18, and the 3rd quarter GDP growth figures for October-December 2017.<br /><br />The new numbers have added some cheer to the disappointing state of affairs in the economy. The aggregate gross domestic product (GDP) registered a healthy growth of 7.2 per cent, while the gross value added (GVA) at constant prices posted a growth of 6.7 per cent (Q3: 2017).<br /><br />To take a broader view, the 2nd AE (2017-18), an annual estimate, pegs GDP growth at 6.6 per cent, as against 7.1 per cent for the previous year. The 2nd AE is computed using 9-10 months of data, which includes the Q3 period. What is the emerging macroeconomic picture from these estimates? And is the economy gradually moving out of troubled times?<br /><br /><em>The big picture:<br /></em><br />GDP numbers are hard to interpret, especially when the estimates are based on a host of indicators and the indicator set changes with each round of revision. The difficulty is compounded by the fact that sometimes the CSO does not provide a consistent picture of the state of proxy indicators used to compute the growth in each sub-sector.<br /><br />For example, the CSO circular released on 28 February does not provide information on the growth of proxy indicators for the GVA of financial, real estate and professional services for the October-December quarter. Both the 2nd AE and Q3 numbers are projections based on a set of indicators for each sub-sector of the economy. Since the period of 2nd AE also includes the period of Q3, it is useful to study both numbers in conjunction.<br /><br />The 2nd AE projects the annual growth (2017-18) of agriculture at 3 per cent, and mining and quarrying at 3 per cent, with the GVA growth for the manufacturing sector pegged at 5.1 per cent. For these sectors, the projected growth rate is lower than that in the previous year (2016-17).<br /><br />In contrast, the growth rate for construction is projected at 4.3 per cent, trade, hotels &amp; transport at 8.3 per cent, and that for the finance and real estate sector at 7.2 per cent. For these sectors, the 2nd AE is higher than that for the previous year.<br /><br />The emerging picture seems to indicate that services have shown a much better performance than the industrial sector, which is eventually leading to a near 7 per cent growth trajectory.<br /><br />The Q3 numbers provide a snapshot of this growth momentum as they capture economic activity in the most recent period. The Q3 figures also indicate a marked improvement in growth rates for various services. The improvement in the construction sector, from 2.8 per cent to 6.8 per cent in October-December, is an encouraging development as its poor performance was a matter of concern.<br /><br />Please <a href="https://theprint.in/opinion/gdp-numbers-have-brought-cheer-but-indian-economy-needs-a-more-even-path-to-growth/38961/" title="https://theprint.in/opinion/gdp-numbers-have-brought-cheer-but-indian-economy-needs-a-more-even-path-to-growth/38961/">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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    <h1 class="cat-box-title">GDP numbers have brought cheer, but Indian economy needs a more even path to growth -Radhika Pandey, Amey Sapre and Pramod Sinha</h1>
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                            <div align="justify">-ThePrint.in<br /><br /><em>Growing CAD, weak bank deposit growth, and fiscal deficit surpassing estimates cause for worry.<br /></em><br />The Central Statistics Office (CSO) recently released the Second Advance Estimates (2nd AE) for 2017-18, and the 3rd quarter GDP growth figures for October-December 2017.<br /><br />The new numbers have added some cheer to the disappointing state of affairs in the economy. The aggregate gross domestic product (GDP) registered a healthy growth of 7.2 per cent, while the gross value added (GVA) at constant prices posted a growth of 6.7 per cent (Q3: 2017).<br /><br />To take a broader view, the 2nd AE (2017-18), an annual estimate, pegs GDP growth at 6.6 per cent, as against 7.1 per cent for the previous year. The 2nd AE is computed using 9-10 months of data, which includes the Q3 period. What is the emerging macroeconomic picture from these estimates? And is the economy gradually moving out of troubled times?<br /><br /><em>The big picture:<br /></em><br />GDP numbers are hard to interpret, especially when the estimates are based on a host of indicators and the indicator set changes with each round of revision. The difficulty is compounded by the fact that sometimes the CSO does not provide a consistent picture of the state of proxy indicators used to compute the growth in each sub-sector.<br /><br />For example, the CSO circular released on 28 February does not provide information on the growth of proxy indicators for the GVA of financial, real estate and professional services for the October-December quarter. Both the 2nd AE and Q3 numbers are projections based on a set of indicators for each sub-sector of the economy. Since the period of 2nd AE also includes the period of Q3, it is useful to study both numbers in conjunction.<br /><br />The 2nd AE projects the annual growth (2017-18) of agriculture at 3 per cent, and mining and quarrying at 3 per cent, with the GVA growth for the manufacturing sector pegged at 5.1 per cent. For these sectors, the projected growth rate is lower than that in the previous year (2016-17).<br /><br />In contrast, the growth rate for construction is projected at 4.3 per cent, trade, hotels &amp; transport at 8.3 per cent, and that for the finance and real estate sector at 7.2 per cent. For these sectors, the 2nd AE is higher than that for the previous year.<br /><br />The emerging picture seems to indicate that services have shown a much better performance than the industrial sector, which is eventually leading to a near 7 per cent growth trajectory.<br /><br />The Q3 numbers provide a snapshot of this growth momentum as they capture economic activity in the most recent period. The Q3 figures also indicate a marked improvement in growth rates for various services. The improvement in the construction sector, from 2.8 per cent to 6.8 per cent in October-December, is an encouraging development as its poor performance was a matter of concern.<br /><br />Please <a href="https://theprint.in/opinion/gdp-numbers-have-brought-cheer-but-indian-economy-needs-a-more-even-path-to-growth/38961/" title="https://theprint.in/opinion/gdp-numbers-have-brought-cheer-but-indian-economy-needs-a-more-even-path-to-growth/38961/">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="https://theprint.in/opinion/gdp-numbers-have-brought-cheer-but-indian-economy-needs-a-more-even-path-to-growth/38961/" class="re" target="_blank">ThePrint.in, 2 March, 2018, https://theprint.in/opinion/gdp-numbers-have-brought-cheer-but-indian-economy-needs-a-more-even-path-to-growth/38961/</a><div class="clear"></div>
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                            <div align="justify">-ThePrint.in<br /><br /><em>Growing CAD, weak bank deposit growth, and fiscal deficit surpassing estimates cause for worry.<br /></em><br />The Central Statistics Office (CSO) recently released the Second Advance Estimates (2nd AE) for 2017-18, and the 3rd quarter GDP growth figures for October-December 2017.<br /><br />The new numbers have added some cheer to the disappointing state of affairs in the economy. The aggregate gross domestic product (GDP) registered a healthy growth of 7.2 per cent, while the gross value added (GVA) at constant prices posted a growth of 6.7 per cent (Q3: 2017).<br /><br />To take a broader view, the 2nd AE (2017-18), an annual estimate, pegs GDP growth at 6.6 per cent, as against 7.1 per cent for the previous year. The 2nd AE is computed using 9-10 months of data, which includes the Q3 period. What is the emerging macroeconomic picture from these estimates? And is the economy gradually moving out of troubled times?<br /><br /><em>The big picture:<br /></em><br />GDP numbers are hard to interpret, especially when the estimates are based on a host of indicators and the indicator set changes with each round of revision. The difficulty is compounded by the fact that sometimes the CSO does not provide a consistent picture of the state of proxy indicators used to compute the growth in each sub-sector.<br /><br />For example, the CSO circular released on 28 February does not provide information on the growth of proxy indicators for the GVA of financial, real estate and professional services for the October-December quarter. Both the 2nd AE and Q3 numbers are projections based on a set of indicators for each sub-sector of the economy. Since the period of 2nd AE also includes the period of Q3, it is useful to study both numbers in conjunction.<br /><br />The 2nd AE projects the annual growth (2017-18) of agriculture at 3 per cent, and mining and quarrying at 3 per cent, with the GVA growth for the manufacturing sector pegged at 5.1 per cent. For these sectors, the projected growth rate is lower than that in the previous year (2016-17).<br /><br />In contrast, the growth rate for construction is projected at 4.3 per cent, trade, hotels &amp; transport at 8.3 per cent, and that for the finance and real estate sector at 7.2 per cent. For these sectors, the 2nd AE is higher than that for the previous year.<br /><br />The emerging picture seems to indicate that services have shown a much better performance than the industrial sector, which is eventually leading to a near 7 per cent growth trajectory.<br /><br />The Q3 numbers provide a snapshot of this growth momentum as they capture economic activity in the most recent period. The Q3 figures also indicate a marked improvement in growth rates for various services. The improvement in the construction sector, from 2.8 per cent to 6.8 per cent in October-December, is an encouraging development as its poor performance was a matter of concern.<br /><br />Please <a href="https://theprint.in/opinion/gdp-numbers-have-brought-cheer-but-indian-economy-needs-a-more-even-path-to-growth/38961/" title="https://theprint.in/opinion/gdp-numbers-have-brought-cheer-but-indian-economy-needs-a-more-even-path-to-growth/38961/">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="https://theprint.in/opinion/gdp-numbers-have-brought-cheer-but-indian-economy-needs-a-more-even-path-to-growth/38961/" class="re" target="_blank">ThePrint.in, 2 March, 2018, https://theprint.in/opinion/gdp-numbers-have-brought-cheer-but-indian-economy-needs-a-more-even-path-to-growth/38961/</a><div class="clear"></div>
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GDP numbers have brought cheer, but Indian economy needs a more even path to growth -Radhika Pandey, Amey Sapre and Pramod Sinha

Published on Mar 10, 2018   Modified on Mar 10, 2018

-ThePrint.in Growing CAD, weak bank deposit growth, and fiscal deficit surpassing estimates cause for worry. The Central Statistics Office (CSO) recently released the Second Advance Estimates (2nd AE) for 2017-18, and the 3rd quarter GDP growth figures for October-December 2017. The new numbers have added some cheer to the disappointing state of affairs in the economy. The aggregate gross domestic product (GDP) registered a healthy growth of 7.2 per cent, while the gross value added (GVA) at constant prices posted a growth of 6.7 per cent (Q3: 2017). To take a broader view, the 2nd AE (2017-18), an annual estimate, pegs GDP growth at 6.6 per cent, as against 7.1 per cent for the previous year. The 2nd AE is computed using 9-10 months of data, which includes the Q3 period. What is the emerging macroeconomic picture from these estimates? And is the economy gradually moving out of troubled times? The big picture: GDP numbers are hard to interpret, especially when the estimates are based on a host of indicators and the indicator set changes with each round of revision. The difficulty is compounded by the fact that sometimes the CSO does not provide a consistent picture of the state of proxy indicators used to compute the growth in each sub-sector. For example, the CSO circular released on 28 February does not provide information on the growth of proxy indicators for the GVA of financial, real estate and professional services for the October-December quarter. Both the 2nd AE and Q3 numbers are projections based on a set of indicators for each sub-sector of the economy. Since the period of 2nd AE also includes the period of Q3, it is useful to study both numbers in conjunction. The 2nd AE projects the annual growth (2017-18) of agriculture at 3 per cent, and mining and quarrying at 3 per cent, with the GVA growth for the manufacturing sector pegged at 5.1 per cent. For these sectors, the projected growth rate is lower than that in the previous year (2016-17). In contrast, the growth rate for construction is projected at 4.3 per cent, trade, hotels & transport at 8.3 per cent, and that for the finance and real estate sector at 7.2 per cent. For these sectors, the 2nd AE is higher than that for the previous year. The emerging picture seems to indicate that services have shown a much better performance than the industrial sector, which is eventually leading to a near 7 per cent growth trajectory. The Q3 numbers provide a snapshot of this growth momentum as they capture economic activity in the most recent period. The Q3 figures also indicate a marked improvement in growth rates for various services. The improvement in the construction sector, from 2.8 per cent to 6.8 per cent in October-December, is an encouraging development as its poor performance was a matter of concern. Please click here to read more.

ThePrint.in, 2 March, 2018, https://theprint.in/opinion/gdp-numbers-have-brought-cheer-but-indian-economy-needs-a-more-even-path-to-growth/38961/

Tagged with: Agricultural Growth Gross Value Added (GVA) from Agriculture Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation Central Statistics Office (CSO) Economic Growth

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