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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | GDP Numbers: What’s Wrong With How India Measures Manufacturing Output Data -Kaushal Shroff

GDP Numbers: What’s Wrong With How India Measures Manufacturing Output Data -Kaushal Shroff

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published Published on Dec 16, 2021   modified Modified on Dec 16, 2021

-TheWire.in

A claim of an 8.4% real GDP growth rate has little relevance even as rural India battles plummeting wage levels, depleted incomes and widespread unemployment.

With the release of the GDP figures for the quarter ending September, the government machinery has been in full swing advancing the narrative that economic growth is indeed back on track.

However, sorely missing from these narratives is the inconvenient factoid on the currently dismal state of consumption, especially rural consumption, in the country.

PFCE or private final consumption expenditure, an indicator of the consumption and consumer demand from households, is still far off from the pre-pandemic levels. The sentiment emanating from the ground doesn’t seem to forebode optimism either. The Consumer Confidence Survey conducted by the Reserve Bank of India for the month of November indicates that the outlook vis-à-vis the economic situation, employment, income, spending and inflation continues to be pessimistic and in the negative territory.

In such a scenario, a claim of an 8.4% real GDP growth rate has little relevance even as rural India battles plummeting wage levels, depleted incomes and widespread unemployment.

Earlier, The Wire highlighted the flaw embedded in the GDP computation methodology which uses data from the organised sector as a proxy for the unorganised sector. A consequence of this computation method is an inaccurate and inflated estimation of the strength of the unorganised sector as it is mistakenly equated with the organised sector. The imputed parity between the organised and the unorganised sector is naturally flawed considering that the domestic unorganised sector has been through a disastrous phase since 2014 as economic brinkmanship in the forms of demonetisation, the Goods and Service Tax (GST) reform, and then the lockdown have irreparably dented the micro, small and medium enterprises (MSME) segment in India.

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TheWire.in, 16 December, 2021, https://thewire.in/economy/gdp-numbers-whats-wrong-with-how-india-measures-manufacturing-output-data


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