Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 150
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 151
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::index() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 151
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 97
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Warning (512): Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853 [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48]
Code Context
            if (Configure::read('debug')) {

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        LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Getting back on the growth track -C Rangarajan    </title>
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-The Hindu

A big push on private investment is needed. But social harmony is also a prerequisite for faster growth

The National Income numbers for 2016-17 have been released. What do they convey? What do they hold for the immediate future? Briefly,..."/>
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-The Hindu

A big push on private investment is needed. But social harmony is also a prerequisite for faster growth

The National Income numbers for 2016-17 have been released. What do they convey? What do they hold for the immediate future? Briefly,..." />
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                            <div align="justify">-The Hindu<br /><br /><em>A big push on private investment is needed. But social harmony is also a prerequisite for faster growth<br /></em><br />The National Income numbers for 2016-17 have been released. What do they convey? What do they hold for the immediate future? Briefly, this is the picture. Recent revisions in the Index of Industrial Production and Wholesale Price Index do not alter the annual growth rates for the recent years.<br /><br />The differences are in one or two decimal points. The growth rate for 2015-16 is estimated at 8%. The growth rate for 2016-17 is 7.1%, which is the same as forecast a few months ago.<br /><br /><em>Impact of demonetisation<br /></em><br />It is the numbers for the fourth quarter of 2016-17, that is, for the quarter January-March 2017, which has attracted much attention. The numbers are being scanned with a critical eye to know what impact demonetisation had on the economy. The overall growth rate of GDP is 6.1%, which is nearly 1% below the growth rate for the previous quarter at 7%. The year-on-year decline is, however, steep.<br /><br />In analysing the January-March quarter numbers, we need to keep in mind three factors. First, a decline in growth rate has been seen from the beginning of the year. The growth rate of every quarter has been sliding from the previous quarter. Second, during Quarter 4, the only two sectors which have shown strong growth are agriculture and public administration. Public administration, defence and other services have shown a sharp increase of 17%. But for this, the overall growth rate would have declined steeply. Third, the sectors that have shown a sharp decline are construction and trade, hotels, transport and communication. These are the sectors which use cash extensively. In the case of construction, output actually declined by 3.7% as compared to a rise of 3.4% in the previous quarter. However, the decline in construction should be interpreted carefully.<br /><br />Obviously the liquidity crunch brought about by inadequate availability of currency consequent upon demonetisation must have halted a lot of construction activity immediately. But the decline is also partly due to &lsquo;shock effect&rsquo;. After all, the construction and real estate sectors are notorious for their cash transactions and dealings which are not above board. There is a paramount need for the participants to adjust.<br /><br />It is naive to pretend that demonetisation would not have had a short-term disruptive effect which would adversely affect growth. The long-term benefits in terms of a change in mindset and behaviour of people and greater use of technology-driven payments system are in the future. They need further actions.<br /><br />Fast remonetisation will help to eliminate the adverse effects caused by shortage of currency. The authorities also need to augment the supply of ?500 notes in a big way.<br /><br />While decreased use of currency is a desirable goal, the authorities should not proceed on the assumption that it is actually happening and therefore the supply of currency can be reduced. While the adverse effects of demonetisation on GDP are clearly seen, it is difficult to decipher how much of the decline in growth rate in the January-March quarter is due to demonetisation and how much due to the underlying declining trend. Now that the disruptive effects of demonetisation are behind us, we need to explore the other factors that may be holding growth back. The most disturbing aspect of the data just released is the continuing decline in the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) rate, that is, GFCF as a proportion of GDP. It has been steadily declining and in 2016-17 it fell to 29.5% from 30.9% in 2015-16.<br /><br />Please <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/getting-back-on-the-growth-track/article18868324.ece" title="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/getting-back-on-the-growth-track/article18868324.ece">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/getting-back-on-the-growth-track/article18868324.ece" class="re" target="_blank">The Hindu, 9 June, 2017, http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/getting-back-on-the-growth-track/article18868324.ece</a><div class="clear"></div>
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A big push on private investment is needed. But social harmony is also a prerequisite for faster growth

The National Income numbers for 2016-17 have been released. What do they convey? What do they hold for the immediate future? Briefly,..."/>
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    <h1 class="cat-box-title">Getting back on the growth track -C Rangarajan</h1>
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                            <div align="justify">-The Hindu<br /><br /><em>A big push on private investment is needed. But social harmony is also a prerequisite for faster growth<br /></em><br />The National Income numbers for 2016-17 have been released. What do they convey? What do they hold for the immediate future? Briefly, this is the picture. Recent revisions in the Index of Industrial Production and Wholesale Price Index do not alter the annual growth rates for the recent years.<br /><br />The differences are in one or two decimal points. The growth rate for 2015-16 is estimated at 8%. The growth rate for 2016-17 is 7.1%, which is the same as forecast a few months ago.<br /><br /><em>Impact of demonetisation<br /></em><br />It is the numbers for the fourth quarter of 2016-17, that is, for the quarter January-March 2017, which has attracted much attention. The numbers are being scanned with a critical eye to know what impact demonetisation had on the economy. The overall growth rate of GDP is 6.1%, which is nearly 1% below the growth rate for the previous quarter at 7%. The year-on-year decline is, however, steep.<br /><br />In analysing the January-March quarter numbers, we need to keep in mind three factors. First, a decline in growth rate has been seen from the beginning of the year. The growth rate of every quarter has been sliding from the previous quarter. Second, during Quarter 4, the only two sectors which have shown strong growth are agriculture and public administration. Public administration, defence and other services have shown a sharp increase of 17%. But for this, the overall growth rate would have declined steeply. Third, the sectors that have shown a sharp decline are construction and trade, hotels, transport and communication. These are the sectors which use cash extensively. In the case of construction, output actually declined by 3.7% as compared to a rise of 3.4% in the previous quarter. However, the decline in construction should be interpreted carefully.<br /><br />Obviously the liquidity crunch brought about by inadequate availability of currency consequent upon demonetisation must have halted a lot of construction activity immediately. But the decline is also partly due to &lsquo;shock effect&rsquo;. After all, the construction and real estate sectors are notorious for their cash transactions and dealings which are not above board. There is a paramount need for the participants to adjust.<br /><br />It is naive to pretend that demonetisation would not have had a short-term disruptive effect which would adversely affect growth. The long-term benefits in terms of a change in mindset and behaviour of people and greater use of technology-driven payments system are in the future. They need further actions.<br /><br />Fast remonetisation will help to eliminate the adverse effects caused by shortage of currency. The authorities also need to augment the supply of ?500 notes in a big way.<br /><br />While decreased use of currency is a desirable goal, the authorities should not proceed on the assumption that it is actually happening and therefore the supply of currency can be reduced. While the adverse effects of demonetisation on GDP are clearly seen, it is difficult to decipher how much of the decline in growth rate in the January-March quarter is due to demonetisation and how much due to the underlying declining trend. Now that the disruptive effects of demonetisation are behind us, we need to explore the other factors that may be holding growth back. The most disturbing aspect of the data just released is the continuing decline in the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) rate, that is, GFCF as a proportion of GDP. It has been steadily declining and in 2016-17 it fell to 29.5% from 30.9% in 2015-16.<br /><br />Please <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/getting-back-on-the-growth-track/article18868324.ece" title="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/getting-back-on-the-growth-track/article18868324.ece">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/getting-back-on-the-growth-track/article18868324.ece" class="re" target="_blank">The Hindu, 9 June, 2017, http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/getting-back-on-the-growth-track/article18868324.ece</a><div class="clear"></div>
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A big push on private investment is needed. But social harmony is also a prerequisite for faster growth

The National Income numbers for 2016-17 have been released. What do they convey? What do they hold for the immediate future? Briefly,..."/>
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                            <div align="justify">-The Hindu<br /><br /><em>A big push on private investment is needed. But social harmony is also a prerequisite for faster growth<br /></em><br />The National Income numbers for 2016-17 have been released. What do they convey? What do they hold for the immediate future? Briefly, this is the picture. Recent revisions in the Index of Industrial Production and Wholesale Price Index do not alter the annual growth rates for the recent years.<br /><br />The differences are in one or two decimal points. The growth rate for 2015-16 is estimated at 8%. The growth rate for 2016-17 is 7.1%, which is the same as forecast a few months ago.<br /><br /><em>Impact of demonetisation<br /></em><br />It is the numbers for the fourth quarter of 2016-17, that is, for the quarter January-March 2017, which has attracted much attention. The numbers are being scanned with a critical eye to know what impact demonetisation had on the economy. The overall growth rate of GDP is 6.1%, which is nearly 1% below the growth rate for the previous quarter at 7%. The year-on-year decline is, however, steep.<br /><br />In analysing the January-March quarter numbers, we need to keep in mind three factors. First, a decline in growth rate has been seen from the beginning of the year. The growth rate of every quarter has been sliding from the previous quarter. Second, during Quarter 4, the only two sectors which have shown strong growth are agriculture and public administration. Public administration, defence and other services have shown a sharp increase of 17%. But for this, the overall growth rate would have declined steeply. Third, the sectors that have shown a sharp decline are construction and trade, hotels, transport and communication. These are the sectors which use cash extensively. In the case of construction, output actually declined by 3.7% as compared to a rise of 3.4% in the previous quarter. However, the decline in construction should be interpreted carefully.<br /><br />Obviously the liquidity crunch brought about by inadequate availability of currency consequent upon demonetisation must have halted a lot of construction activity immediately. But the decline is also partly due to &lsquo;shock effect&rsquo;. After all, the construction and real estate sectors are notorious for their cash transactions and dealings which are not above board. There is a paramount need for the participants to adjust.<br /><br />It is naive to pretend that demonetisation would not have had a short-term disruptive effect which would adversely affect growth. The long-term benefits in terms of a change in mindset and behaviour of people and greater use of technology-driven payments system are in the future. They need further actions.<br /><br />Fast remonetisation will help to eliminate the adverse effects caused by shortage of currency. The authorities also need to augment the supply of ?500 notes in a big way.<br /><br />While decreased use of currency is a desirable goal, the authorities should not proceed on the assumption that it is actually happening and therefore the supply of currency can be reduced. While the adverse effects of demonetisation on GDP are clearly seen, it is difficult to decipher how much of the decline in growth rate in the January-March quarter is due to demonetisation and how much due to the underlying declining trend. Now that the disruptive effects of demonetisation are behind us, we need to explore the other factors that may be holding growth back. The most disturbing aspect of the data just released is the continuing decline in the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) rate, that is, GFCF as a proportion of GDP. It has been steadily declining and in 2016-17 it fell to 29.5% from 30.9% in 2015-16.<br /><br />Please <a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/getting-back-on-the-growth-track/article18868324.ece" title="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/getting-back-on-the-growth-track/article18868324.ece">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/getting-back-on-the-growth-track/article18868324.ece" class="re" target="_blank">The Hindu, 9 June, 2017, http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/getting-back-on-the-growth-track/article18868324.ece</a><div class="clear"></div>
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Home हिन्दी

Getting back on the growth track -C Rangarajan

Published on Jun 9, 2017   Modified on Jun 9, 2017

-The Hindu A big push on private investment is needed. But social harmony is also a prerequisite for faster growth The National Income numbers for 2016-17 have been released. What do they convey? What do they hold for the immediate future? Briefly, this is the picture. Recent revisions in the Index of Industrial Production and Wholesale Price Index do not alter the annual growth rates for the recent years. The differences are in one or two decimal points. The growth rate for 2015-16 is estimated at 8%. The growth rate for 2016-17 is 7.1%, which is the same as forecast a few months ago. Impact of demonetisation It is the numbers for the fourth quarter of 2016-17, that is, for the quarter January-March 2017, which has attracted much attention. The numbers are being scanned with a critical eye to know what impact demonetisation had on the economy. The overall growth rate of GDP is 6.1%, which is nearly 1% below the growth rate for the previous quarter at 7%. The year-on-year decline is, however, steep. In analysing the January-March quarter numbers, we need to keep in mind three factors. First, a decline in growth rate has been seen from the beginning of the year. The growth rate of every quarter has been sliding from the previous quarter. Second, during Quarter 4, the only two sectors which have shown strong growth are agriculture and public administration. Public administration, defence and other services have shown a sharp increase of 17%. But for this, the overall growth rate would have declined steeply. Third, the sectors that have shown a sharp decline are construction and trade, hotels, transport and communication. These are the sectors which use cash extensively. In the case of construction, output actually declined by 3.7% as compared to a rise of 3.4% in the previous quarter. However, the decline in construction should be interpreted carefully. Obviously the liquidity crunch brought about by inadequate availability of currency consequent upon demonetisation must have halted a lot of construction activity immediately. But the decline is also partly due to ‘shock effect’. After all, the construction and real estate sectors are notorious for their cash transactions and dealings which are not above board. There is a paramount need for the participants to adjust. It is naive to pretend that demonetisation would not have had a short-term disruptive effect which would adversely affect growth. The long-term benefits in terms of a change in mindset and behaviour of people and greater use of technology-driven payments system are in the future. They need further actions. Fast remonetisation will help to eliminate the adverse effects caused by shortage of currency. The authorities also need to augment the supply of ?500 notes in a big way. While decreased use of currency is a desirable goal, the authorities should not proceed on the assumption that it is actually happening and therefore the supply of currency can be reduced. While the adverse effects of demonetisation on GDP are clearly seen, it is difficult to decipher how much of the decline in growth rate in the January-March quarter is due to demonetisation and how much due to the underlying declining trend. Now that the disruptive effects of demonetisation are behind us, we need to explore the other factors that may be holding growth back. The most disturbing aspect of the data just released is the continuing decline in the Gross Fixed Capital Formation (GFCF) rate, that is, GFCF as a proportion of GDP. It has been steadily declining and in 2016-17 it fell to 29.5% from 30.9% in 2015-16. Please click here to read more.

The Hindu, 9 June, 2017, http://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/getting-back-on-the-growth-track/article18868324.ece

Tagged with: Economic Growth Economic Development GDP growth rate GDP growth GDP estimates Gross Value Added (GVA)

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