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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Global food prices hit 10-month high in March-Dilip Kumar Jha

Global food prices hit 10-month high in March-Dilip Kumar Jha

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published Published on Apr 3, 2014   modified Modified on Apr 3, 2014
-The Business Standard


Unfavourable weather conditions in US, Brazil; reduced supply on geopolitical tensions supported move, to ease soon

Global food prices rose sharply to hit a 10-month high in March, following a 2.3 per cent rise in the prices of agricultural commodities brought on by unfavourable weather conditions in the United States and Brazil, coupled with geopolitical tensions in the Russian region.

While the global commodity price rise opened an opportunity for Indian exporters, albeit temporarily, it could also stoke a possible rise in domestic inflation, which policy makers controlled after stepping up favourable policy initiatives.

Data compiled by the Food and Agricultural Organization (FAO) of the United Nations showed that the FAO Food Price Index rose by 4.8 points to an average of 212.8, the highest level since May 2013.

"The Index was influenced, as expected, by unfavourable weather conditions in the US and Brazil, and geopolitical tensions in the Black Sea region," said Abdolreza Abbassian, FAO Senior Economist.

The Food Price Index looks at March trends. Since then, the initial fear over disruptions in grain shipments from Ukraine has subsided. Also, markets have started to discard any negative impact that the current difficult domestic economic conditions may bear on planting or harvest in 2014, an FAO study said.

The index, based on the prices of a basket of internationally-traded food commodities, saw prices increase in all groups except dairy, which fell for the first time in four months (-2.5 per cent). The greatest gains were seen in sugar (+7.9 per cent) and cereals (+5.2 per cent).

Meanwhile, FAO reported a higher estimate for world cereal production in 2013, which has been raised by 6 million tonnes to 2,521 million tonnes. The latest adjustments reflect higher estimates for production of coarse grains and rice in several countries. Its forecast for ending stocks has also been raised and world trade is set to increase by significantly more than earlier expected.

"It is still too early to make accurate production forecasts for cereals, as many crops have yet to be planted and weather remains the key factor influencing harvests," said FAO's Abbassian.

World wheat production in 2014 is forecast at 702 million tonnes, down 2 million tonnes from FAO's first forecast published in March. This would be 2 per cent lower than last year's record harvest.

Global rice production in 2014, however, points to a modest 0.8 per cent increase, to 500.7million tonnes (milled basis), as growth is likely to be dampened by falling world prices and fears of a recurring El Niño event.

Even though the outlook for rice is up slightly, increases might not be sufficient to match population growth. As a result, inventories in the next season could see a decline, albeit from very high levels.


The Business Standard, 3 April, 2014, http://www.business-standard.com/article/international/global-food-prices-hit-10-month-high-in-march-114040300521_1.html


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