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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | A crisis without villains -Harish Damodaran

A crisis without villains -Harish Damodaran

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published Published on Aug 17, 2020   modified Modified on Aug 17, 2020

-The Indian Express

Current economic contraction is different from previous ones. Governments should borrow and spend

India has never experienced negative economic growth since 1979-80, and before that in 1972-73, 1965-66 and 1957-58. All these were drought years with 1957-58 also registering a significant balance of payments (BOP) deterioration and 1979-80 witnessing the second global oil shock following the Iranian Revolution.

The real GDP decline of 5-10 per cent that various agencies are projecting for 2020-21 would be the country’s first ever not triggered/accompanied by an agricultural or a BOP crisis.

This time round, not only have farmers harvested a bumper rabi crop, and look set to repeat it in the ongoing kharif season, public cereal stocks at 94.42 million tonnes as on July 1 were also 2.3 times the required level. The January-March 2020 quarter was the first in 13 years to have recorded a current account BOP surplus. June even saw a surplus on the merchandise trade account for the first time after January 2002. Foreign exchange reserves were at an all-time high of $538.19 billion on August 7, rising by $60.38 billion since end-March amidst the novel coronavirus and the lockdown.

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The Indian Express, 17 August, 2020, https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/a-crisis-without-villains-6557602/


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