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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | GST, a buoyant force -Kapil Patidar & Arvind Subramanian

GST, a buoyant force -Kapil Patidar & Arvind Subramanian

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published Published on Jun 20, 2018   modified Modified on Jun 20, 2018
-The Indian Express

Aggregate revenues have done well, despite headwinds, especially for less developed, consuming states

One fiscal year into the implementation of the GST, it is worth asking how it has performed in terms of revenue generation both for the country and for individual states. And here the news, based on analysing nine full months of data, is encouraging. Three important and new points stand out.

One, aggregate revenues are highly buoyant. In this year’s Economic Survey, we had argued that confusion reigns in understanding GST performance because of focusing on one or more of the bewildering sub-categories of the GST (CGST, SGST, IGST, cess etc). To assess how the new system is doing, we need to understand overall GST performance, both actual collections and collections stripping out some of the clearly transitional factors (call it “steady state” performance).

Based on the first nine months of data (and including April 2018 collections in those of March 2018, as they should be), revenue collections for nine months were Rs 8.2 lakh crore (11 lakh crore annualised), yielding revenue growth of 11.9 per cent, compared with the relevant pre-GST numbers. The implied tax buoyancy (responsiveness of tax growth to nominal GDP growth) is 1.2, which is high by the historical standards for indirect taxes.

But another measure (more indicative of the medium run) of revenue performance is to strip the actual collections of transitional factors. Some of these will boost future performance (for example, a large overhang of CGST credit has kept last year’s revenues down), and some might depress them (uncleared export and other pending refunds have inflated last year’s revenues).

It is difficult to precisely quantify these factors but rough estimates yield an annual (steady-state) aggregate GST revenue growth that is likely to be greater than the actual collections growth of 11.9 per cent.

A moment of reflection indicates that these revenue growth and buoyancy estimates are in fact quite surprising considering three significant headwinds that the GST faced: Implementation challenges in the first year of a massively disruptive tax change; decelerating growth in the economy (both nominal and real) which tends to dampen revenue growth; and finally, the large GST rate reductions that were effected throughout the first nine months, but especially after November 2017, which should also have lowered revenue collections.

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The Indian Express, 20 June, 2018, https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/economic-survey-revenue-gdp-fiscal-year-growth-indirect-taxes-gst-a-buoyant-force-5224614/


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