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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Hard realities -Renu Kohli

Hard realities -Renu Kohli

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published Published on Sep 13, 2022   modified Modified on Sep 15, 2022

-The Telegraph

The economy remains vulnerable to headwinds

The shortfall in economic growth in the April-June quarter against rosier predictions of most, including the central bank, came as a surprise.Few anticipated the gap between expected and actual performance would be as much (2.5-3 percentage points). It has prompted a tide of downward revisions for the whole year; these follow a previous round, two months ago, due to inflation, higher interest rates, and geopolitical factors. Comparisons have, therefore, been drawn with 2019-20, the pre-pandemic year, in which growth forecasts were regularly disproved each quarter while final GDP grew at 3.8%, almost half the initial prediction. Much before the data release, the possibility of repeat growth downgrades in a worsening context was apprehended and it was discussed here that economic resilience could be tested given the toughening conditions in the forthcoming months. Since then, the cracks have become more apparent while the headwinds are blowing with greater force. There are hard realities that growth expectations must reckon with.

That economic improvement over the initial base, that is before Covid-19, was weak has been routinely noted by many. A disturbing aspect of economic performance in the first quarter is a sequential contraction of almost every portion of aggregate demand; the shrinkages exceed the normal reductions observed each summer season in the past several years. It is not certain if this represents a struggling recovery even before full restoration and it increases uncertainty about the future outlook. The economic fallout of the Russia-Ukraine war took a further toll on prices and volumes — the already-high inflation got fresh impetus from a sharp energy shock and rocketing food prices, as result of which real GDP grew at the same rate as that of inflation(GDP deflator, in this instance). World trade got a knock from dimming demand and disruptions abroad, feeding back to slower exports. Spending by consumers, businesses and government was also lowered in different magnitudes as compared to the January-March period.

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The Telegraph, 13 September, 2022, https://www.telegraphindia.com/opinion/hard-realities-the-economy-remains-vulnerable-to-headwinds/cid/1886256


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