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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | High Rural Wages Have no Bearing on Inflation -Gayathri Nayak

High Rural Wages Have no Bearing on Inflation -Gayathri Nayak

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published Published on Oct 22, 2014   modified Modified on Oct 22, 2014
-The Times of India

A Reserve Bank of India paper says that the UPA flagship MGNREGA or the Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Act, under which a household is assured of 100 days of wages per year in return for working on various rural development, has not actually contributed to the rise in food inflation as generally perceived. Incidently, the Reserve Bank was among the first to point that the wage spiral caused by the MNREGA was responsible for high food inflation two years ago when inflation started touching the double digit levels and food prices had started spiralling forcing the central bank to raise key policy rates. But its own staff is negating this theory .

The paper does acknowledge various research that have attributed a host of demand side and supply side factors including MNREGA that have contributed to food inflation in India.

Supply side explainations are linked to weather conditions like droughts or floods or monsoons.The paper quotes that drought-led high food prices have contributed to seven out of nine double-digit inflation episodes between 1956 and 2010 in India.

As far as demand side is concerned, rising incomes especially rural farm wages, and increase in real consumption, the rapidly expanding Indian middle class has been cited as a major cause of the rise in food prices in India in recent years. Besides, a structural towards protein based food without a corresponding rise in their supplies hava also contributed to inflation of such food items.

Also, demand offered to the poor through schemes, such as Mahatma Gandhi National Rural Employment Guarantee Scheme (MGNREGA), pay commission awards and other social welfare schemes have infused substantial amounts of liquidity and purchasing power generating increased demand for food items. Analysts have argued that the government sponsored public work has increased the bargaining power of the work force.The increase in agricultural wage was found to be a significant determinant of movements in food prices through its impact on cost of agricultural production.

Yet an econometric exercise done by the authors does not show any significant relation between MNREGA and high food inflation over the long run, though it admits to it having some impact in the short run. The study shows that the persistence of food inflation in recent years can largely be ascribed to higher wages, particularly , in the rural sector pushed further by hikes in MSP of rice and wheat and input cost inflation.

 


The Economic Times, 22 October, 2014, http://epaperbeta.timesofindia.com/Article.aspx?eid=31817&articlexml=High-Rural-Wages-Have-no-Bearing-on-Inflation-22102014014024#


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