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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | IMD monsoon forecast showers Indian economy with cheer -Srishti Choudhary & Sayantan Bera

IMD monsoon forecast showers Indian economy with cheer -Srishti Choudhary & Sayantan Bera

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published Published on Apr 17, 2018   modified Modified on Apr 17, 2018
-Livemint.com

Rainfall will be 97% of the 50-year average with a 54% probability that rains will be normal to above normal, IMD said in its first stage, long-range monsoon forecast

New Delhi: Rainfall is likely to be normal during the June-to-September southwest monsoon season, the government’s weather office said on Monday.

“For the third consecutive year, India will have a normal monsoon. There is very less probability of experiencing a deficit monsoon. We will come out with the next assessment on 15 May about the onset of monsoon over Kerala,” said K. J. Ramesh, director general of the India Meteorological Department (IMD) said.

IMD will update its forecast in early June with details on month and region-wise distribution.

If indeed the IMD forecast does pan out then it will have a salutary impact on the macroeconomic framework—especially with respect to food inflation—and mitigate some of the farm distress.

Rainfall will be 97% of the 50-year average with a 54% probability that rains will be normal to above normal, the IMD said in its first stage long range forecast. Probability that rainfall will be deficient (less than 90% of 50 year average) is 14%, it added.

The onset of the monsoon in June is the trigger for planting of rain-fed Kharif crops. India receives 70% of its annual rainfall in the four-month period, which in turn irrigates over half of its farm lands lacking assured irrigation.

A normal monsoon is crucial to push economic growth, which slowed last year under the lingering impact of demonetisation and disruptions due to implementation of the goods and services tax (GST), both of which impacted private consumption demand as well as exports, CRISIL research said in a note.

“Today’s monsoon forecast is the first set of good news but for agriculture spatial and temporal distribution of monsoon is as critical,” said Dharmakirti Joshi, chief economist at Crisil Ltd. “The revival in the farm sector will depend on the prices that farmers receive...there is no clarity yet on the government’s proposed minimum support price policy which will be important in a good production year,” Joshi added.

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Livemint.com, 17 April, 2018, https://www.livemint.com/Politics/yXH2aScXFh9ooaG05XtGmL/IMD-forecasts-a-normal-monsoon-in-2018.html


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