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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | In one stroke, demonetisation has shaken the trust our monetary system is based on -Devangshu Datta

In one stroke, demonetisation has shaken the trust our monetary system is based on -Devangshu Datta

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published Published on Nov 10, 2016   modified Modified on Nov 10, 2016
-Scroll.in

Even the long-term benefits of the move seem to be outweighed by the heavy costs and disruption it would cause, particularly for the lower income groups.

The demonetisation of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 currency notes came as a surprise to almost everyone. The details of re-monetisation are still to become entirely clear. What follows is a set of personal opinions of likely outcomes arising from this move to demonetise. Each of those opinions could be entirely wrong but they are all centred on subjects that are worth thinking about.

But, first, some basic statistics.

About 85% of all currency in circulation has just been turned into coupons that can only be exchanged in specific places. These notes can be converted into currency again only with identity proofs (which hundreds of millions don’t have) and the additional hardship of standing in many queues for many hours.

Over half of India’s population doesn’t have any sort of bank account at the moment and about 300 million don’t have basic ID such as Aadhaar either and hence, cannot access the banking system at all. About 130 million Indians have mobile wallets (about 25 million have credit cards) and there are maybe 550-600 million debit cards in circulation. So access to cash is very, very important for average Indians.

Liquidity in the economic system will be sucked out for several weeks at the very least, due to the very stringent restrictions on cash withdrawals from ATMs, and bank accounts. Plus there’s the sheer logistics of getting that massive volume of new notes into circulation. In addition there will be a cost to printing and distributing the new notes and taking the old currency out of circulation.

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Scroll.in, 9 November, 2016, http://scroll.in/article/821113/in-one-stroke-demonetisation-has-shaken-the-trust-our-monetary-system-is-based-on


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