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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | India Braces for Oil Blowback as Trump Set to Announce Decision on Iran Deal -Noor Mohammad

India Braces for Oil Blowback as Trump Set to Announce Decision on Iran Deal -Noor Mohammad

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published Published on May 9, 2018   modified Modified on May 9, 2018
-TheWire.in

If Trump carries out his threat of pulling the US out of the deal and re-imposes sanctions on the Persian Gulf country, oil prices could start soaring, hitting India and other major crude importers hard.

New Delhi:
The global oil market is waiting with bated breath for US President Donald Trump’s next move on the Iran nuclear deal, expected to be announced on Tuesday, four days ahead of the May 12 deadline.

If Trump carries out his threat of pulling the US out of the deal and re-imposes sanctions on the Persian Gulf country, oil prices could start soaring, hitting India and other major crude importers hard.

Analysts reckon that if US sanctions kick in again, Iran’s oil exports will shrink by 300,000 to 500,000 barrels a day. That would be enough to send global oil prices soaring. The market is already grappling with supply concerns due to plunging crude production in Venezuela, a major oil exporter.

Meanwhile, hardening oil prices have started weighing on the India rupee. On Monday, it breached the 67 mark to a dollar for the first time in 15 months, reviving memories of the currency’s free fall in 2013, triggered by the Federal Reserve’s tightening of monetary policy.

In 2013, investors panicked over India’s high current account deficit (CAD) as western powers threatened to attack Syria, sending oil prices soaring. The rupee at the time fell by over 21% between June 3 and August 28.

This time, Trump has threatened not to extend sanctions waivers when they expire on May 12, unless European signatories of the deal fix what he calls its “flaws”.

Oil bomb

India’s CAD widened to $13.5 billion, or 2% of GDP, in the quarter ended December 2017, from $8 billion, or 1.4% of GDP, in the quarter ended December 2016, as per data compiled by the Reserve Bank of India.

CAD widened due to a higher trade deficit of $44.1 billion on account of larger increase in merchandise imports, mainly crude oil and other petroleum product imports, which account for more than 40% of India’s overall merchandise import bill.

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TheWire.in, 8 May, 2018, https://thewire.in/economy/india-oil-trump-iran-deal


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