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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | India had dropped the ball & exported excess wheat in 2004-05. Modi govt shouldn’t repeat it -Shweta Saini, Siraj Hussain, and Pulkit Khatri

India had dropped the ball & exported excess wheat in 2004-05. Modi govt shouldn’t repeat it -Shweta Saini, Siraj Hussain, and Pulkit Khatri

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published Published on May 4, 2022   modified Modified on May 5, 2022

-ThePrint.in

In 2004-05, lack of information on private trade contracts resulted in much larger quantities of wheat exports than intended. India had to import for years to make up.

It is clear by now that Indian wheat production in 2021-22 Rabi season is going to be lower than the government’s second advance estimate of 16 February 2022, of 111.32 million metric tonnes (MMTs). The moot question is by how much? Also, if the production is lower, then what is the amount of wheat that the country can afford to export to meet the global wheat demand? We address these questions.

Level of wheat production in India

The country was expected to produce about 111.32 MMTs of wheat in 2021-22 (marketed in the Rabi marketing season 2022-23). Last year’s production was about 109.6 MMTs. As per NITI Aayog’s Prof Ramesh Chand, India’s wheat production is most likely to lie between 101.3 and 105.3 MMTs. The trade, however, pegs the current crop at a much lower end at around 93.4 MMTs – about 16 per cent lower than the second advance estimate.

Lower production and possibility of higher value realisations globally or domestically have impacted the central government’s procurement drive. As of 30 April 2022, about 16 MMTs of wheat have been procured. This is about 41 per cent lower than the 27 MMTs wheat procured last year till this time. It is feared that procurement may reach just about 20 MMTs, which is about 5 MMTs lower than the worst-case scenario projected in our previous article. Among other things, lower procurement is likely to impact the government’s ability to sell under the Open Market Sale Scheme (OMSS). This sale usually plays a critical role in scenarios of high inflation because these sales help in diffusing the building price pressures.

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ThePrint.in, 4 May, 2022, https://theprint.in/opinion/india-had-dropped-the-ball-exported-excess-wheat-in-2004-05-modi-govt-shouldnt-repeat-it/941083/?fbclid=IwAR1KAZdzqse07_LVxfr_xUJ8TjwPVFDJ_AbF6Eb8dfuoZr_sAm5GhYHOWSA


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