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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | India’s Covid mortality 6 to 8 times higher than official counts: Study -GS Mudur

India’s Covid mortality 6 to 8 times higher than official counts: Study -GS Mudur

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published Published on Feb 17, 2022   modified Modified on Feb 17, 2022

-The Telegraph

If the estimates are correct, it would become the country with the highest death toll, well ahead of around 800,000 deaths so far in the US and 600,000 in Brazil

India’s Covid-19 mortality is six to eight times higher than official counts, research released on Wednesday has estimated, reinforcing through a novel methodology earlier suggestions that undercounting had masked the true ferocity of the second wave.

The study has estimated that between 3.2 million people and 3.7 million people had died from Covid by early November 2021, when the Centre’s count based on data from states was around 460,000. The official count has since then increased to over 509,000 deaths.

The estimates by Christophe Guilmoto, a demographer at a French academic institution, are close to the figure of 3.2 million Covid deaths up to July 2021 estimated independently last year by a team led by epidemiologist Prabhat Jha at the University of Toronto, Canada.

Guilmoto used actual Covid deaths in four distinct subpopulations — the population of Kerala, Indian Railways employees, MLAs and MPs, and schoolteachers in Karnataka — to estimate nationwide deaths through a triangulation process.

If the estimates are correct, India would become the country with the highest death toll, well ahead of around 800,000 deaths so far in the US and 600,000 in Brazil. The worldwide death toll would increase from the current 5.8 million.

Health experts not associated with either study said the convergence of estimates from different datasets and analytical methods added credence to concerns about undercounted deaths and challenged assertions by the Union health ministry that such studies were flawed.

“The picture emerging is similar from different sources of data — and it indicates that our mortality figures need to be revised,” said a community medicine specialist at an academic institution, who requested not to be named.

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The Telegraph, 17 February, 2022, https://www.telegraphindia.com/india/indias-covid-mortality-6-to-8-times-higher-than-official-counts-study/cid/1852230


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