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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | India’s Fertility Transition and Differences between Religious Groups -KS James and Md Juel Rana

India’s Fertility Transition and Differences between Religious Groups -KS James and Md Juel Rana

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published Published on Nov 5, 2021   modified Modified on Nov 27, 2021

-TheIndiaForum.in

‘Overpopulation’ can no longer be a concern in India, as across states and across religious groups fertility has been falling in recent decades and approaching replacement level. Fears about a demographic shift between religious groups are not based on fact.

India’s demographic trends have been viewed optimistically in recent years, compared to the second half of the 20th century when the discourse was about “overpopulation”. Undoubtedly, the country is now passing through a rapid fertility transition. The Total Fertility Rate (TFR) —the number of children a woman is likely to bear during her child-bearing age going by the current pattern of fertility at all ages — stands at 2.2, according to the latest (2018) data available from the official Sample Registration System (SRS).

This is close to the replacement level of 2.1, the rate at which the size of the population potentially remains stable for a few decades and thereafter does not grow. The pace of fertility decline in India has been nearly 2% per year in the past few decades, which is a faster decline than before. Overall, therefore, the earlier concern about overpopulation in India has given way to discussions on the demographic dividend and the need to concentrate on the quality of the population.

Yet, concerns about overpopulation continue to erupt from time to time. These concerns are dominated by two arguments. First, since India’s population is continuing to grow, it is necessary to place a check on growth by taking major measures. This argument, as will be shown below, reflects a poor understanding of population dynamics. Achievement of replacement level fertility does not imply an immediate stabilization of the population. This is because the fertility rate in the past was higher than today and people born in the past will reach the reproductive age group, get married and then have children. Therefore, because of this population momentum, the population will continue to grow for a while whatever the efforts taken at this juncture.

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TheIndiaForum.in, 5 November, 2021, https://www.theindiaforum.in/article/india-fertility-transition-differences-religious-groups?utm_source=website&utm_medium=organic&utm_campaign=featured-articles&utm_content=Homepage


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