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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | India's budget math faces a tough challenge now -Nikita Kwatra

India's budget math faces a tough challenge now -Nikita Kwatra

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published Published on Jun 18, 2019   modified Modified on Jun 18, 2019
-Livemint.com

To keep up with the pressure of making headline fiscal deficit numbers look good, the government has increasingly resorted to off-budget financing for revenue as well as capital spending

As with every other Union budget in the country, all eyes will focus on the fiscal deficit number that India’s new finance minister, Nirmala Sitharaman presents on 5 July in her maiden budget speech. But for many investors and analysts, how that number is being calculated will matter as much as the headline number itself.

Over the past few years, the government has managed to keep the headline fiscal deficit figure under check. But as these pages had highlighted earlier, and as several analysts have pointed out since then, the fiscal consolidation record of the Narendra Modi-led government has been marred by growing use of off-budget financing.

Such off-budget financing to fund its revenue and capital spending have dented the credibility of the budget numbers, analysts said.

Data on off-budget liabilities sourced from A Prasanna, head of fixed income at ICICI Securities Primary Dealership, suggests that if these expenses were to be included in fiscal calculations, India is already in a deep fiscal hole, with the ‘adjusted’ fiscal deficit hovering near 5 percent of India’s gross domestic product (GDP).

Is India's recent fiscal consolidation a myth?

The adjusted fiscal deficit calculations take into account the issuance of special bonds such as oil bonds, fertilizer bonds and Food Corporation of India (FCI) bonds till fiscal 2009 and National Small Savings Fund (NSSF) loans and government-serviced bonds issued by public sector entities in the more recent years.

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Livemint.com, 17 June, 2019, https://www.livemint.com/budget/news/india-s-budget-math-faces-a-tough-challenge-now-1560752816141.html


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