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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | India's GDP Debate: What Explains Reduced Growth Rates Under the UPA? -R Nagaraj

India's GDP Debate: What Explains Reduced Growth Rates Under the UPA? -R Nagaraj

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published Published on Dec 4, 2018   modified Modified on Dec 4, 2018
-TheWire.in

How correct was it for the Central Statistics Office to have selectively used contested methods for preparing the back series data?

The spotlight is back on India’s growth rates, three years after the gross domestic product (GDP) data using the 2011-12 base year was released.

Before trying to delve into the controversy surrounding the back-series data – which saw GDP growth from 2006-2012 reduce significantly – it is important to understand how we measure GDP and what happened during the last base year revision.

GDP, or gross value added (GVA), is a measure of goods and services produced in an economy in a year, net of intermediate inputs. Broadly-speaking, it is a statistical construct based on innumerable estimations of value addition taking place in an economy.

GDP is estimated following the UN System of National Accounts (UNSNA) – a global template, revised periodically to account for evolving economic activities.

The National Accounts Statistics (NAS) – the Central Statistical Office’s (CSO) annual publication which reported GDP estimates with the base year 2011-12 – was released in early 2015. The base year revision has always followed the UNSNA guidelines; the previous revision was with the base year 2004-05.

GDP is re-based regularly to account for changing production structure, relative prices and better recording of economic activities. Crucially, the re-basing also allows for introducing newer methodologies and improved databases. Such changes often expand the absolute GDP size because we are able to more accurately capture output. However, annual growth rates usually do not vary too much with re-basing of GDP – implying that the underlying pace of economic expansion has remained the same.

The last revision was somewhat peculiar as it resulted in a 2.3 percentage point shrinkage of the absolute GDP (GVA) size in the base year (2011-12), thus raising India’s growth rates in the following years. For instance, in 2013-14, the growth rate of the manufacturing sector swung from (-) 0.7% in the old series to (+) 5.3% in the new series.

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TheWire.in, 2 December, 2018, https://thewire.in/macro/indias-gdp-debate-what-explains-reduced-growth-rates-under-the-upa


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