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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Inflation falls to -4.95%, spurs deflation fears, rate cut hopes -TCA Sharad Raghavan

Inflation falls to -4.95%, spurs deflation fears, rate cut hopes -TCA Sharad Raghavan

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published Published on Sep 14, 2015   modified Modified on Sep 14, 2015
-The Hindu

Overall, industry bodies are positive about the ongoing contraction in inflation, but there is some wariness regarding deflation.

Wholesale price inflation contracted for the tenth consecutive month, coming in at -4.95 per cent in August compared to -4.05 per cent in July. This follows Chief Economic Adviser Arvind Subramanian’s comments cautioning that India’s economy could be nearing deflationary territory. The data also comes two weeks before the Reserve Bank of India’s scheduled policy review meeting on September 29 where it will decide on whether to cut interest rates.

Overall, industry bodies are positive about the ongoing contraction in inflation, but there is some wariness regarding deflation.

“Continued decline in inflation levels is a huge positive for our economy given the current situation. This we feel is the right opportunity to get back the confidence of domestic investors and revive consumer demand. Amidst the prevailing global headwinds, these two are the most critical factors for firming up India’s growth aspirations,” said Dr. Jyotsna Suri, president, FICCI.

While reiterating these points, Mr Rana Kapoor, president of The Associated Chambers of Commerce and Industry of India said that: “Deflation is a far greater worry than inflation considering that some fall in prices could very well result in slowing down of demand in the economy as when prices start falling, a vicious cycle of lower spending and lower demand sets in, thereby hampering growth.”

Inflation in primary articles in the WPI fell to -3.7 per cent in August compared to -3.66 per cent in July. Within this, inflation in food articles grew marginally to -1.13 per cent in August compared to -1.16 per cent in July.

Inflation in the fuel and power category fell considerably to -16.5 per cent in August, mainly driven by the fall in mineral oil inflation which fell to -24.2 per cent in August compared to -19 per cent in July.

Manufactured good inflation fell to -1.9 per cent in August from -1.5 per cent in the previous month.

Falling inflation and slower-than-expected GDP growth in the first quarter of the financial year has increased the pressure on the RBI from industry to cut interest rates.

“The WPI index has declined for the tenth consecutive month indicating slackness in economic activity across sectors. Given that CPI inflation has also been declining, the RBI needs to reduce interest rates sharply to drive a recovery in demand. CII expects the RBI to reduce interest rates by 50 basis points in the forthcoming policy with statements supporting further easing in the near future,” said Mr. Chandrajit Banerjee, Director General, CII.

The Hindu, 14 September, 2015, http://www.thehindu.com/business/Economy/wholesale-price-indes-wpi-inflation-falls-spurs-deflation-fears-rate-cut-hopes/article7651559.ece?homepage=true


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