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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Jobs -- The Govt.'s Tangled Web -Subodh Varma

Jobs -- The Govt.'s Tangled Web -Subodh Varma

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published Published on Jul 25, 2018   modified Modified on Jul 25, 2018
-Newsclick.in

Leaking EPFO enrolment numbers, and tall tales about trucks and buses, and doctors and engineers, marked PM Modi’s deceptive claims on jobs in his Lok Sabha speech.

"Oh, what a tangled web we weave when at first we start to deceive" wrote Sir Walter Scott two centuries ago. The Modi govt.’s attempt to create data on non-existent jobs confirms this truth.

Since last year, an increasingly cornered govt. has been marshalling all kinds of half-baked ‘data’ to prove that it is well ahead in fulfilling its election promise of creating 1 crore jobs every year. One of these manufactured arguments is based on monthly enrolment data now being put out by the Employees’ Provident Fund Organisation (EPFO). There has been a jump in net EPFO enrolments, according to these numbers which – as per the govt. – shows a massive increase in jobs.

But these numbers are turning out to be a slippery bunch. For the period September 2017 to March 2018 the EPFO first announced a net increase of 39.35 lakh enrolments. This was on 25 May 2018. The figures were revised and declared again one month later (on 25 June) showing 34.4 lakh as the net addition. Finally, one more month later, on 20 July the figures were down further to 30.55 lakh! Same period but data is steadily dipping.

In all, in two months, the so called net new enrolment under EPFO for Sept 2017 to March 2018 is down by over 22% or nearly 9 lakh. This is the flip side of data jugglery – it can get out of hand even in the hands of adept spin-masters.

The reason for this messy data is that the govt. is trying to squeeze water out of rocks. EPFO enrolment is no measure of new employment created. It includes people who may be earlier working and have recently been covered under the EPF scheme. It includes transient workers. After the govt. announced that it would pay the employers’ share of EPF contributions there is uncertainty about whether new employees are being enrolled or already existing employees are now getting covered. Some have even raised doubts about whether any employee is being covered or the employers are just gobbling up the govt.’s share claiming new employees.

Whatever be the case, Prime Minister Modi’s recent speech in the Lok Sabha in reply to the no-confidence debate relied heavily on this dubious EPFO data to claim that the govt. has met its promise of creating one crore jobs in a year. 45 lakh (or 45%) of the one crore was based on this data.
 
EPFO data
 
The remaining 55 lakh (1 crore minus 45 lakh) were claimed by PM Modi to have been proved by National Pension Scheme enrolment (5.68 lakh); doctors, CAs and lawyers who started working (more than 6 lakh); and 20 lakh in the transport sector based on sales of auto-rickshaws, commercial vehicles and passenger vehicles. [These add up to 32 lakh not 55 lakh, but who cares!]

Please click here to read more.


Newsclick.in, 23 July, 2018, https://newsclick.in/jobs-govts-tangled-web


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