Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 150
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 151
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::index() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 151
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 97
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Warning (512): Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853 [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48]
Code Context
            if (Configure::read('debug')) {

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        LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Look at the facts of demonetisation, not politics -Kaushik Basu    </title>
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-The Indian Express

Six months later, it is clear that it achieved next to nothing, and inflicted a large cost on the poor and the informal sector.

It was six months ago, on November 8, that India hit the headlines the world..."/>
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Six months later, it is clear that it achieved next to nothing, and inflicted a large cost on the poor and the informal sector.

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                            <div align="justify">-The Indian Express<br /><br /><em>Six months later, it is clear that it achieved next to nothing, and inflicted a large cost on the poor and the informal sector.<br /></em><br />It was six months ago, on November 8, that India hit the headlines the world over, with its sudden demonetisation. It was announced in the evening that, at the stroke of the midnight hour, all bank notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 would cease to be legal tender. People would have the option, till December 30, to deposit these notes in the bank or change them for other notes, including newly-minted 500 and 2000 rupees.<br /><br />Since then, a wealth of analysis and data have become available. Demonetisation&rsquo;s half-anniversary is a good time to take stock of this historic decision. The verdict is clear. It was a monetary policy blunder. It achieved next to nothing, and inflicted a large cost on the poor and the informal sector.<br /><br />India&rsquo;s GDP growth rate of around 7 per cent over 2016-17 is commendable; tribute goes to policy initiatives such as the GST and the new bankruptcy law. However, these policies, coupled with two global trends, should have propelled India to a growth rate of over 8 per cent, the kind it had achieved before 2008.<br /><br />The two global trends are the low international price of crude oil and rising wages in China. High oil prices have for long been a drain on India&rsquo;s foreign exchange, preventing India from allocating money to other important imports. The fact that oil prices have fallen, from around $120 per barrel three years ago to below $50 now, is a massive boost. Second, China&rsquo;s rising wages have dampened its export capacity, creating space for others to step in. But demonetisation took the wind out of India&rsquo;s sails. My calculation is that around 1.5 percentage points of growth were lost to it.<br /><br />It is easy to see why demonetisation was such an ill-conceived move. The first reason given for this policy in the government&rsquo;s press release on November 8 had to do with eliminating fake currency notes. India has long battled fake rupee notes injected into its economy. The best estimate is that one out of every 4,000 notes in India is fake. But using sudden demonetisation to tackle this was pointless. First, most of these notes are in the pockets of ordinary people who have no idea that they are fake. As a court ruling in Maharashtra in February made clear, it is not a crime to be in possession of fake notes as long as that is not done deliberately. Second, these notes are harmful only in their creation. Once in circulation, they are like any other money. If it is felt that the estimated Rs 400 crore worth of fake currency in India increased money supply to an undesirable point, all we have to do is drain Rs 400 crore of currency in circulation, fake or real.<br /><br />Please <a href="http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/look-at-the-facts-of-demonetisation-not-politics-4650210/" title="http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/look-at-the-facts-of-demonetisation-not-politics-4650210/">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/look-at-the-facts-of-demonetisation-not-politics-4650210/" class="re" target="_blank">The Indian Express, 11 May, 2017, http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/look-at-the-facts-of-demonetisation-not-politics-4650210/</a><div class="clear"></div>
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                            <div align="justify">-The Indian Express<br /><br /><em>Six months later, it is clear that it achieved next to nothing, and inflicted a large cost on the poor and the informal sector.<br /></em><br />It was six months ago, on November 8, that India hit the headlines the world over, with its sudden demonetisation. It was announced in the evening that, at the stroke of the midnight hour, all bank notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 would cease to be legal tender. People would have the option, till December 30, to deposit these notes in the bank or change them for other notes, including newly-minted 500 and 2000 rupees.<br /><br />Since then, a wealth of analysis and data have become available. Demonetisation&rsquo;s half-anniversary is a good time to take stock of this historic decision. The verdict is clear. It was a monetary policy blunder. It achieved next to nothing, and inflicted a large cost on the poor and the informal sector.<br /><br />India&rsquo;s GDP growth rate of around 7 per cent over 2016-17 is commendable; tribute goes to policy initiatives such as the GST and the new bankruptcy law. However, these policies, coupled with two global trends, should have propelled India to a growth rate of over 8 per cent, the kind it had achieved before 2008.<br /><br />The two global trends are the low international price of crude oil and rising wages in China. High oil prices have for long been a drain on India&rsquo;s foreign exchange, preventing India from allocating money to other important imports. The fact that oil prices have fallen, from around $120 per barrel three years ago to below $50 now, is a massive boost. Second, China&rsquo;s rising wages have dampened its export capacity, creating space for others to step in. But demonetisation took the wind out of India&rsquo;s sails. My calculation is that around 1.5 percentage points of growth were lost to it.<br /><br />It is easy to see why demonetisation was such an ill-conceived move. The first reason given for this policy in the government&rsquo;s press release on November 8 had to do with eliminating fake currency notes. India has long battled fake rupee notes injected into its economy. The best estimate is that one out of every 4,000 notes in India is fake. But using sudden demonetisation to tackle this was pointless. First, most of these notes are in the pockets of ordinary people who have no idea that they are fake. As a court ruling in Maharashtra in February made clear, it is not a crime to be in possession of fake notes as long as that is not done deliberately. Second, these notes are harmful only in their creation. Once in circulation, they are like any other money. If it is felt that the estimated Rs 400 crore worth of fake currency in India increased money supply to an undesirable point, all we have to do is drain Rs 400 crore of currency in circulation, fake or real.<br /><br />Please <a href="http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/look-at-the-facts-of-demonetisation-not-politics-4650210/" title="http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/look-at-the-facts-of-demonetisation-not-politics-4650210/">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/look-at-the-facts-of-demonetisation-not-politics-4650210/" class="re" target="_blank">The Indian Express, 11 May, 2017, http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/look-at-the-facts-of-demonetisation-not-politics-4650210/</a><div class="clear"></div>
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                            <div align="justify">-The Indian Express<br /><br /><em>Six months later, it is clear that it achieved next to nothing, and inflicted a large cost on the poor and the informal sector.<br /></em><br />It was six months ago, on November 8, that India hit the headlines the world over, with its sudden demonetisation. It was announced in the evening that, at the stroke of the midnight hour, all bank notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 would cease to be legal tender. People would have the option, till December 30, to deposit these notes in the bank or change them for other notes, including newly-minted 500 and 2000 rupees.<br /><br />Since then, a wealth of analysis and data have become available. Demonetisation&rsquo;s half-anniversary is a good time to take stock of this historic decision. The verdict is clear. It was a monetary policy blunder. It achieved next to nothing, and inflicted a large cost on the poor and the informal sector.<br /><br />India&rsquo;s GDP growth rate of around 7 per cent over 2016-17 is commendable; tribute goes to policy initiatives such as the GST and the new bankruptcy law. However, these policies, coupled with two global trends, should have propelled India to a growth rate of over 8 per cent, the kind it had achieved before 2008.<br /><br />The two global trends are the low international price of crude oil and rising wages in China. High oil prices have for long been a drain on India&rsquo;s foreign exchange, preventing India from allocating money to other important imports. The fact that oil prices have fallen, from around $120 per barrel three years ago to below $50 now, is a massive boost. Second, China&rsquo;s rising wages have dampened its export capacity, creating space for others to step in. But demonetisation took the wind out of India&rsquo;s sails. My calculation is that around 1.5 percentage points of growth were lost to it.<br /><br />It is easy to see why demonetisation was such an ill-conceived move. The first reason given for this policy in the government&rsquo;s press release on November 8 had to do with eliminating fake currency notes. India has long battled fake rupee notes injected into its economy. The best estimate is that one out of every 4,000 notes in India is fake. But using sudden demonetisation to tackle this was pointless. First, most of these notes are in the pockets of ordinary people who have no idea that they are fake. As a court ruling in Maharashtra in February made clear, it is not a crime to be in possession of fake notes as long as that is not done deliberately. Second, these notes are harmful only in their creation. Once in circulation, they are like any other money. If it is felt that the estimated Rs 400 crore worth of fake currency in India increased money supply to an undesirable point, all we have to do is drain Rs 400 crore of currency in circulation, fake or real.<br /><br />Please <a href="http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/look-at-the-facts-of-demonetisation-not-politics-4650210/" title="http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/look-at-the-facts-of-demonetisation-not-politics-4650210/">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/look-at-the-facts-of-demonetisation-not-politics-4650210/" class="re" target="_blank">The Indian Express, 11 May, 2017, http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/look-at-the-facts-of-demonetisation-not-politics-4650210/</a><div class="clear"></div>
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Home हिन्दी

Look at the facts of demonetisation, not politics -Kaushik Basu

Published on May 12, 2017   Modified on May 12, 2017

-The Indian Express Six months later, it is clear that it achieved next to nothing, and inflicted a large cost on the poor and the informal sector. It was six months ago, on November 8, that India hit the headlines the world over, with its sudden demonetisation. It was announced in the evening that, at the stroke of the midnight hour, all bank notes of Rs 500 and Rs 1,000 would cease to be legal tender. People would have the option, till December 30, to deposit these notes in the bank or change them for other notes, including newly-minted 500 and 2000 rupees. Since then, a wealth of analysis and data have become available. Demonetisation’s half-anniversary is a good time to take stock of this historic decision. The verdict is clear. It was a monetary policy blunder. It achieved next to nothing, and inflicted a large cost on the poor and the informal sector. India’s GDP growth rate of around 7 per cent over 2016-17 is commendable; tribute goes to policy initiatives such as the GST and the new bankruptcy law. However, these policies, coupled with two global trends, should have propelled India to a growth rate of over 8 per cent, the kind it had achieved before 2008. The two global trends are the low international price of crude oil and rising wages in China. High oil prices have for long been a drain on India’s foreign exchange, preventing India from allocating money to other important imports. The fact that oil prices have fallen, from around $120 per barrel three years ago to below $50 now, is a massive boost. Second, China’s rising wages have dampened its export capacity, creating space for others to step in. But demonetisation took the wind out of India’s sails. My calculation is that around 1.5 percentage points of growth were lost to it. It is easy to see why demonetisation was such an ill-conceived move. The first reason given for this policy in the government’s press release on November 8 had to do with eliminating fake currency notes. India has long battled fake rupee notes injected into its economy. The best estimate is that one out of every 4,000 notes in India is fake. But using sudden demonetisation to tackle this was pointless. First, most of these notes are in the pockets of ordinary people who have no idea that they are fake. As a court ruling in Maharashtra in February made clear, it is not a crime to be in possession of fake notes as long as that is not done deliberately. Second, these notes are harmful only in their creation. Once in circulation, they are like any other money. If it is felt that the estimated Rs 400 crore worth of fake currency in India increased money supply to an undesirable point, all we have to do is drain Rs 400 crore of currency in circulation, fake or real. Please click here to read more.

The Indian Express, 11 May, 2017, http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/look-at-the-facts-of-demonetisation-not-politics-4650210/

Tagged with: cash crunch cash deficit Cash shortage Currency demonetisation Demonetisation informal economy informal employment Informal Workers Economic Development Economic Growth

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