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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Mixed Signals from the External Sector -CP Chandrasekhar </title>
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<h1 class="cat-box-title">Mixed Signals from the External Sector -CP Chandrasekhar</h1>
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Published on</span><span class="text-date"> Oct 7, 2017</span>
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<div align="justify">-NetworkIdeas.org<br /><br />A slew of numbers releasedrecently point to rather peculiar and contrary trends in India’s balance of payments. Exports have revived but the trade and current account deficits widen, pointing to an excess of foreign exchange expenditure relative to earnings. While the widening current account deficit points to a weakening balance of payments position, foreign exchange reserves are at record levels. The foreign exchange reserve increase is funded largely by capital flows, consisting of a very large share of investments in the debt market. Such large capital inflows are strengthening the rupee and undermining export competitiveness, which can worsen the current account position and create a vicious circle. Yet, since the increase in external debt is treated as “portfolio investment”, the similarities of the current situation to that before the debt-driven balance of payments crisis of 1991 are being ignored. And for those who want to talk up the balance of payments, there is no shortage of comforting evidence.<br /><br />The most encouraging trend relates to the rate of growth of dollar value of exports calculated relative to the corresponding month of the previous year. That figure has been consistently positive over the 12 months ending August 2017, which is a major improvement when compared with the evidence that exports were declining for 18 months in a row till May 2016. So, there is cause for celebration.<br /><br />But a close look at the numbers revealsthat there is also much cause for concern. India’s trade deficit is widening significantly. As compared with a deficit of $23.8 billion during April-June 2016, the deficit has risen to $41.2 billion during April-June 2017 or by 73 per cent over a year. This even though over these three-month periods exports rose from $66.6 billion in 2016 to $73.7 billion in 2017. The trade deficit has widened not because exportsare doing badly but because of a steep increase in the import bill from$90.5 billion during April-June 2016 to $114.9 billion during the corresponding period of the current year.<br /><br />Please <a href="http://www.networkideas.org/news-analysis/2017/09/mixed-signals-from-the-external-sector/" title="http://www.networkideas.org/news-analysis/2017/09/mixed-signals-from-the-external-sector/">click here</a> to read more. </div><div align="justify"> </div>
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<br><a href="http://www.networkideas.org/news-analysis/2017/09/mixed-signals-from-the-external-sector/" class="re" target="_blank">NetworkIdeas.org, 29 September, 2017, http://www.networkideas.org/news-analysis/2017/09/mixed-signals-from-the-external-sector/</a><div class="clear"></div>
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<h1 class="cat-box-title">Mixed Signals from the External Sector -CP Chandrasekhar</h1>
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<div align="justify">-NetworkIdeas.org<br /><br />A slew of numbers releasedrecently point to rather peculiar and contrary trends in India’s balance of payments. Exports have revived but the trade and current account deficits widen, pointing to an excess of foreign exchange expenditure relative to earnings. While the widening current account deficit points to a weakening balance of payments position, foreign exchange reserves are at record levels. The foreign exchange reserve increase is funded largely by capital flows, consisting of a very large share of investments in the debt market. Such large capital inflows are strengthening the rupee and undermining export competitiveness, which can worsen the current account position and create a vicious circle. Yet, since the increase in external debt is treated as “portfolio investment”, the similarities of the current situation to that before the debt-driven balance of payments crisis of 1991 are being ignored. And for those who want to talk up the balance of payments, there is no shortage of comforting evidence.<br /><br />The most encouraging trend relates to the rate of growth of dollar value of exports calculated relative to the corresponding month of the previous year. That figure has been consistently positive over the 12 months ending August 2017, which is a major improvement when compared with the evidence that exports were declining for 18 months in a row till May 2016. So, there is cause for celebration.<br /><br />But a close look at the numbers revealsthat there is also much cause for concern. India’s trade deficit is widening significantly. As compared with a deficit of $23.8 billion during April-June 2016, the deficit has risen to $41.2 billion during April-June 2017 or by 73 per cent over a year. This even though over these three-month periods exports rose from $66.6 billion in 2016 to $73.7 billion in 2017. The trade deficit has widened not because exportsare doing badly but because of a steep increase in the import bill from$90.5 billion during April-June 2016 to $114.9 billion during the corresponding period of the current year.<br /><br />Please <a href="http://www.networkideas.org/news-analysis/2017/09/mixed-signals-from-the-external-sector/" title="http://www.networkideas.org/news-analysis/2017/09/mixed-signals-from-the-external-sector/">click here</a> to read more. </div><div align="justify"> </div>
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<br><a href="http://www.networkideas.org/news-analysis/2017/09/mixed-signals-from-the-external-sector/" class="re" target="_blank">NetworkIdeas.org, 29 September, 2017, http://www.networkideas.org/news-analysis/2017/09/mixed-signals-from-the-external-sector/</a><div class="clear"></div>
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<h1 class="cat-box-title">Mixed Signals from the External Sector -CP Chandrasekhar</h1>
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Published on</span><span class="text-date"> Oct 7, 2017</span>
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<div align="justify">-NetworkIdeas.org<br /><br />A slew of numbers releasedrecently point to rather peculiar and contrary trends in India’s balance of payments. Exports have revived but the trade and current account deficits widen, pointing to an excess of foreign exchange expenditure relative to earnings. While the widening current account deficit points to a weakening balance of payments position, foreign exchange reserves are at record levels. The foreign exchange reserve increase is funded largely by capital flows, consisting of a very large share of investments in the debt market. Such large capital inflows are strengthening the rupee and undermining export competitiveness, which can worsen the current account position and create a vicious circle. Yet, since the increase in external debt is treated as “portfolio investment”, the similarities of the current situation to that before the debt-driven balance of payments crisis of 1991 are being ignored. And for those who want to talk up the balance of payments, there is no shortage of comforting evidence.<br /><br />The most encouraging trend relates to the rate of growth of dollar value of exports calculated relative to the corresponding month of the previous year. That figure has been consistently positive over the 12 months ending August 2017, which is a major improvement when compared with the evidence that exports were declining for 18 months in a row till May 2016. So, there is cause for celebration.<br /><br />But a close look at the numbers revealsthat there is also much cause for concern. India’s trade deficit is widening significantly. As compared with a deficit of $23.8 billion during April-June 2016, the deficit has risen to $41.2 billion during April-June 2017 or by 73 per cent over a year. This even though over these three-month periods exports rose from $66.6 billion in 2016 to $73.7 billion in 2017. The trade deficit has widened not because exportsare doing badly but because of a steep increase in the import bill from$90.5 billion during April-June 2016 to $114.9 billion during the corresponding period of the current year.<br /><br />Please <a href="http://www.networkideas.org/news-analysis/2017/09/mixed-signals-from-the-external-sector/" title="http://www.networkideas.org/news-analysis/2017/09/mixed-signals-from-the-external-sector/">click here</a> to read more. </div><div align="justify"> </div>
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<br><a href="http://www.networkideas.org/news-analysis/2017/09/mixed-signals-from-the-external-sector/" class="re" target="_blank">NetworkIdeas.org, 29 September, 2017, http://www.networkideas.org/news-analysis/2017/09/mixed-signals-from-the-external-sector/</a><div class="clear"></div>
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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Mixed Signals from the External Sector -CP Chandrasekhar
Mixed Signals from the External Sector -CP Chandrasekhar
Published on Oct 7, 2017
Modified on Oct 7, 2017
-NetworkIdeas.org
A slew of numbers releasedrecently point to rather peculiar and contrary trends in India’s balance of payments. Exports have revived but the trade and current account deficits widen, pointing to an excess of foreign exchange expenditure relative to earnings. While the widening current account deficit points to a weakening balance of payments position, foreign exchange reserves are at record levels. The foreign exchange reserve increase is funded largely by capital flows, consisting of a very large share of investments in the debt market. Such large capital inflows are strengthening the rupee and undermining export competitiveness, which can worsen the current account position and create a vicious circle. Yet, since the increase in external debt is treated as “portfolio investment”, the similarities of the current situation to that before the debt-driven balance of payments crisis of 1991 are being ignored. And for those who want to talk up the balance of payments, there is no shortage of comforting evidence.
The most encouraging trend relates to the rate of growth of dollar value of exports calculated relative to the corresponding month of the previous year. That figure has been consistently positive over the 12 months ending August 2017, which is a major improvement when compared with the evidence that exports were declining for 18 months in a row till May 2016. So, there is cause for celebration.
But a close look at the numbers revealsthat there is also much cause for concern. India’s trade deficit is widening significantly. As compared with a deficit of $23.8 billion during April-June 2016, the deficit has risen to $41.2 billion during April-June 2017 or by 73 per cent over a year. This even though over these three-month periods exports rose from $66.6 billion in 2016 to $73.7 billion in 2017. The trade deficit has widened not because exportsare doing badly but because of a steep increase in the import bill from$90.5 billion during April-June 2016 to $114.9 billion during the corresponding period of the current year.
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