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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Monsoon deficit at 10%; Met Dept sees situation worsening this month -Vinson Kurian

Monsoon deficit at 10%; Met Dept sees situation worsening this month -Vinson Kurian

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published Published on Aug 18, 2015   modified Modified on Aug 18, 2015
-The Hindu Business Line

THIRUVANANTHAPURAM: The overall monsoon deficit for the country as a whole is in double digits for the first time this season, and forecasts suggest it may worsen during the rest of August.

India Met Department assessed the deficit at 10 per cent with the worst-hit South topping a list of three geographical regions with 20 per cent. The other deficits are reported from East and North-East India (-12 per cent) and Central India (-9 per cent). The lone surplus in North-West India has narrowed further to just one per cent.

These figures are set to undergo further downside revision if the forecasts are anything to go by. North-West could just slip into deficit while in Central India, it could enter double-digit figures. What is likely aggravating the situation is the absence of any rain-making weather systems (low-pressure areas) over the landmass and the reduced likelihood of any such materialising in the near term.

Pacific typhoons

This outlook is not helped either by the feverish activity building in the central and northwest Pacific, which has a bearing on a concurrent monsoon over India.

Depending on the time and place of their genesis and their track, Pacific typhoons (cyclones) help drag in moisture into the Asian monsoon, of which the South-West monsoon of India is a part. But the rogue ones can do the exact reverse and ‘bleed’ the monsoon to near-death – as looks likely the case currently with the dynamics associated with typhoons Atsani and Goni raging in that basin. Earlier, the expectation was the systems would help drag in a fresh wave from south of Sri Lanka and trigger rains over the peninsula to start with.

Below normal

Those hopes are now being discounted heavily. While both typhoons are expected to grow in strength, forecasts also suggest they turn away from their westerly course and head back into central Pacific. Parts of the peninsula have already started getting rains as the twin typhoons race in but may dry up soon as they turn tail with whatever little moisture available over India.

The Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology is of the view that the country is bracing below normal rain for the rest of the month. It expects some activity to start in the Bay of Bengal with its rustling up some energy of its own; but this can happen only after a while after the typhoons die out completely.

The Hindu Business Line, 17 August, 2015, http://www.thehindubusinessline.com/industry-and-economy/agri-biz/monsoon-deficit-at-10-met-dept-sees-situation-worsening-this-month/article7550819.ece?homepa


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