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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Monsoon going strong, set to top 100% -Neha Lalchandani

Monsoon going strong, set to top 100% -Neha Lalchandani

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published Published on Aug 2, 2013   modified Modified on Aug 2, 2013
-The Times of India


NEW DELHI: At the halfway mark, the monsoon shows no signs of flagging and, on current projections, is set to cross 100% of its long period average, promising to relieve a stressed economy and ease the Manmohan Singh government's political burden.

A bountiful monsoon is likely to benefit the kharif crop despite some hiccups in east India and the government is anticipating record rice production with the area under sowing touching 196 lakh hectares, a 16 lakh hectare increase over last year.

Since 1901, there have been 59 years when the monsoon has crossed 100% of the LPA. Since 2000, there have been only four years when monsoon crossed the 100% mark. These are 2003, 2007, 2010 and 2011.

The projection is welcome news for the government as a stuttering monsoon can cast a long shadow on its political fortunes with growth slipping below 5% and high food inflation - prices for consumers rose 11.84% in June -- proving a sizeable thorn in the side for UPA-2.

The government hopes the farm sector significantly improves on last year's 1.8% growth with R Rangarajan, chairman of the PM's economic advisory council, saying a normal monsoon could even yield a 3.4% growth.

Plentiful, well distributed rains will not just add bounce to the economy, but can enhance a sense of well-being despite the urban chaos associated with the monsoon. On balance, the spectre of drought and added financial commitments is far less appealing.

On July 31, the countrywide figures showed excess rains. Against a normal of 452.4 mm for the period between June 1 and July 31, rainfall was 117% of normal. In its June 14 update, the Met department predicted 98% of LPA in July. The month ended with 107-108%.

Met officials feel the monsoon is headed for a strong finish with more than 100% of LPA rainfall at the end of the season against a forecast of 98%. Normal rainfall for four months of the season is 890 mm and so far 528.1 mm has already been recorded.

"The season has been very favourable so far and there are signs that when monsoon ends in September, we would have seen more than 890 mm rain. Models indicate that August will record about 96% of normal rain. We are already 17% above normal so a slight break will not make much difference," said Dr D S Pai, director (long range forecast) IMD, Pune.

Of the four major sub-divisions, only east and northeast face a deficit. The region has recorded only 67% of normal rainfall of 786.6 mm. Other regions, especially central India, have recorded above normal rain. In northwest India, which has recorded 125% rain, there is a deficit in the Haryana-Chandigarh-Delhi subdivision. But even here, Delhi by itself recorded 460 mm rain, 184 mm more than normal.

"The excellent rainfall, especially in central India which has recorded 46% more than normal rain, has been due to regular formations of low pressure systems over northwest Bay of Bengal which have moved in a westerly direction across central India," said Dr O P Singh, deputy director general, Delhi Regional Meteorological Centre.

The path of the depressions determined the location of the monsoon trough which has been south of its normal position for most of the season so far. "Because of the lows, the monsoon core area, the area in which the trough oscillates and which includes parts of Gujarat, Vidarbha, southeast Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh, Gangetic West Bengal and parts of Uttar Pradesh, have been getting very good rain," Singh said.

Areas like the northeast, Jharkhand and Tamil Nadu, the latter looking at a deficiency of 15% at mid-season, have been deficit due to the depressions moving in westerly direction. If they were to form up north from their current location, these areas would stand to benefit while rainfall over central India would reduce.



The Times of India, 2 August, 2013, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Monsoon-going-strong-set-to-top-100/articleshow/21542622.cms


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