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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Monsoon likely to retreat in September-Rituraj Tiwari

Monsoon likely to retreat in September-Rituraj Tiwari

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published Published on Aug 14, 2012   modified Modified on Aug 14, 2012
-The Times of India

Though rains have lashed most parts of the country in the past few days, raising hopes of wiping out deficiency, a strong likelihood of the emergence of rain-interrupting El Nino weather pattern in September is still keeping weathermen on tenterhooks.

The El Nino conditions, known to cause dry weather, are likely to disrupt the monsoon's progress which has reduced the overall rain deficit from 19% in July to 15% now.

"We hope it rains the maximum in August as the monsoon is likely to dry up in September, posing a threat to standing crops which were sown due to good rains in July and August," said an India Meteorological Department (IMD) official who didn't want to be named.

Monsoon rains, which remained subdued till July, gathered pace in the first week of August and accelerated sowing in the past few days. Weather officials say that the rains are because of a pulse of cloud - called the Madden-Julian Oscillation phenomenon -- in western Pacific which has moved eastwards favouring rainfall.

"The monsoon will continue for a couple of days and it will enter a weak phase leading to lower precipitation," said IMD's long-range chief forecaster D Sivananda Pai. He said El Nino is likely to reduce rainfall during the later part of August and particularly in September causing drier weather.

Weather officials are worried over a coincidence of the withdrawal of the favourable MJO phenomenon and the emergence of El Nino conditions. "They should not happen simultaneously as this can dry up intermittent rains," the weather official said. IMD has forecast a deficient monsoon this year., raising threats of a drought after 2009.

IMD, Australian Bureau of Meteorology and US National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration warn about a strong El Nino condition in the Pacific, the latest Japan Meteorological Agency data suggest that the El Nino phenomenon has already emerged in the equatorial Pacific. "Chances are high that the El Nino phenomenon will be maintained until the winter," the agency said.

The Times of India, 14 August, 2012, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Monsoon-likely-to-retreat-in-September/articleshow/15487718.cms


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