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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Monsoon poor, hope of surge

Monsoon poor, hope of surge

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published Published on Jun 15, 2012   modified Modified on Jun 15, 2012
-The Telegraph

Rainfall over India has been 42 per cent below normal during the first 13 days of the 120-day monsoon season, with vast tracts of the peninsular region still waiting for rains, but scientists today predicted a fresh surge within the next three days.

The India Meteorological Department said today it expects atmospheric conditions to “become favourable” for a further advance of the monsoon over parts of Bengal and Odisha over the next three days.

After a week’s standstill, the monsoon budged on Wednesday, but only slightly, expanding into more parts of Tamil Nadu and Karnataka, and the Bay of Bengal, but not enough to cover territories that should have been under the rain shadow more than a week ago.

Two cyclonic circulations, one over the Arabian Sea, the other over the Bay of Bengal, had been expected to drive the monsoon further inland and over the Bay of Bengal, but scientists today said the surge yesterday had been weaker than expected.

“The cyclonic circulation off the coast of Andhra Pradesh has moved northeast and has not gained the strength that it should for good rainfall,” said a senior IMD scientist. “It is also still at an altitude between 3.1km and 5.8km,” he said. A cyclonic circulation should extend all the way to the surface for it to emerge a source of copious rainfall.

Under these conditions, rainfall over India has been 42 per cent below normal between June 1 and June 13. Rainfall has been deficient in almost all of the 36 agrometeorological regions, except in the northeast where the monsoon has been normal — up to 19 per cent below or above average.

But sub-Himalayan Bengal and Sikkim, and Arunachal Pradesh are the only two regions under the monsoon that have had above average rainfall — only one percent above average. Jammu and Kashmir has received 3 per cent above average, but through non-monsoon mechanisms.

“We now expect the monsoon to advance over eastern India only by June 17,” the IMD scientist said. Over the last three days, the scientist said, several regions already under the monsoon have received slightly increasing amounts of rainfall. “We’ve just seen the first two weeks of the season — the monsoon may make up for this June shortfall during the next two weeks — let’s wait and see,” the scientist said.

The IMD has said it expects conditions to become favourable for a further advance of the monsoon over Bengal and Odisha over the next three days and along the Konkan coast, parts of Madhya Pradesh, and the Bay of Bengal over the next three or four days.

The Telegraph, 15 June, 2012, http://www.telegraphindia.com/1120615/jsp/nation/story_15613658.jsp#.T9rFcxeO25w


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