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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Monsoon rally sees near 100% rain in August -Amit Bhattacharya

Monsoon rally sees near 100% rain in August -Amit Bhattacharya

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published Published on Aug 31, 2012   modified Modified on Aug 31, 2012
-The Times of India

The monsoon in August has beaten most expectations, including the India Meteorological Department's outlook of 96% rain for the month, by registering 99.6% of normal rainfall (till August 29). The rain rally, particularly impressive in north India, has raised hopes of a better than expected kharif crop output.

The overall monsoon deficit now stands at 12%, considerably better than 19% when the month began. The northern states, which were reeling under a 34% rain deficit till July-end, have received 115% rains this month. The deficit in these states — that constitute IMD's Northwest India region —has now dramatically reduced to 14%.

"In contrast to July when typhoons in the west Pacific region had held up the monsoon, in August several storms in that region blew in the opposite direction (towards west or northwest), helping rains in India. This apart, many low pressure formations aided rainfall this month," said a senior meteorologist.

Experts are split on whether the good rains would continue into September and reduce the overall deficit to below 10%.

The IMD is sticking to its forecast of the monsoon weakening in September due to the effect of El Nino, an unusual warming of the equatorial Pacific waters that is known to depress the monsoon. In its latest update on August 2, IMD predicted deficit monsoon this year, with overall rainfall at less than 90% of normal.

"We do not see any reason to change our forecast," D Sivananda Pai, IMD's lead monsoon forecaster, told TOI. "There are indications that El Nino would affect the monsoon in September."

Some climate models, however, have begun to predict temperature patterns in the Indian Ocean turning favourable for the monsoon, which may negate the effect of El Nino. The pattern, known as the Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD), is the difference between sea surface temperatures in east and west India Ocean. A positive dipole is known to aid the monsoon.

While the outlook for September remains uncertain, the bountiful rains in August have improved the prospects of the kharif crop to some extent. "The good monsoon in August will help salvage some crops and will be good for the standing crop, but the absence of rain during much of the sowing period (June-July) will still show," said D K Joshi, chief economist at Crisil, a rating agency.

Joshi said the worst hit crops this monsoon are expected to be oilseeds, coarse cereals and pulses. "These rains, however, are good for power generation, groundwater recharge and for the winter (rabi) crop.

The Times of India, 31 August, 2012, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Monsoon-rally-sees-near-100-rain-in-August/articleshow/16030594.cms


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