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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Monsoon revival unlikely to boost food production; food prices likely to go up- Rituraj Tiwari

Monsoon revival unlikely to boost food production; food prices likely to go up- Rituraj Tiwari

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published Published on Sep 10, 2012   modified Modified on Sep 10, 2012
-The Economic Times

A late revival of monsoon may have narrowed the rain deficit to single digit (9%) but it is unlikely to help boost food grains production. "There would be a decline in the overall food grains production.

There would be some drop in the production of pulses and coarse cereals," said Agriculture Secretary Ashish Bahuguna. He said the indication will start coming after the first advance estimates of the kharif season. "Just wait for a few weeks, we will get an idea after the first advance estimate figures come out," he said.

The decline in output is likely to stoke food inflation, which has fallen slightly to 10.06% in July after moving up sharply to 10.81% in June.

According to a study by Assocham, an industry body, retail prices of essential commodities like sugar, edible oil and pulses may jump 15% in the coming festive season due to rising demand and lower output.

"Demand for commodities increases during the festive season. This year, production is also expected to be lower due to weak rains," Assocham secretary general DS Rawat said.

Defying all the forecasts of El Nino-strike, the monsoon was at its peak during the week ended September 5 with the country receiving the heaviest rainfall of the season - 31% above normal.

Rains have reached the parched areas of Gujarat and Saurashtra — the regions which were staring at a rain deficiency of more than 50%.

"This has helped the standing groundnut and cotton crops. It will have a positive impact on the yield. However, it's a little late for most other crops," said RS Sharma, senior scientist at Agricultural Policy Research Institute.

The monsoon, aided by raindriving westerly disturbances, is set for a delayed withdrawal, bringing more rains to most parts of the country to its tailend. The weak El Nino current in the Pacific may not be able to thwart rain-bearing clouds. "If El Nino remains weak and westerly disturbances remain active on both the coasts, monsoon may turn normal by weather office's definition.

The Economic Times, 10 September, 2012, http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/agriculture/monsoon-revival-unlikely-to-boost-food-production-food-prices-likely-to-go-up/articleshow/16331291.


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