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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Monsoon takes a pause

Monsoon takes a pause

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published Published on Jul 1, 2010   modified Modified on Jul 1, 2010

A combination of unfavourable atmospheric patterns have delayed the revival and further advance of the monsoon which has not moved to cover more of the subcontinent for over 12 days.

While the monsoon had covered half the country by mid-June, its northern limit has not shifted since June 18. It is currently passing through Rajkot, Ahmedabad, Indore, Pendra, Daltonganj, Gaya and Muzaffarpur.

The India Meteorological Department (IMD) had predicted last Friday that after about a week of subdued activity, the monsoon would revive and advance over central and northern parts of India by the middle of this week.

But the latest meteorological conditions suggest that the monsoon is unlikely to advance over the remaining parts of eastern or central India during the next two to four days, the IMD said.

Computer simulations of the weather indicate that the monsoon flow will strengthen and advance into northwestern India by July 8 and cover the entire country by July 15.

Scientists say there is nothing surprising about a lull in the monsoon activity.

“The monsoon’s advance always occurs in spurts. Its movement is not a monotonic northward progress,” Sulochana Gadgil, professor of atmospheric sciences at the Indian Institute of Science, Bangalore, said.

The IMD has said the revival has been delayed because low pressure systems have not formed over northern Bay of Bengal. Strong northwesterly winds are also preventing the advance of the monsoon, it said.

Some scientists are also linking the subdued monsoon activity to a phenomenon called the Madden Julian Oscillation (MJO), a pattern of unusual cloudiness and rainfall in the equatorial Indian ocean region.

“As the MJO propagates eastward, we expect the monsoon activity to improve,” said Damodar Pai, director of long range forecasting at the IMD, Pune. “But it has not been moving eastward fast enough,” he said.

“There is extensive MJO-associated clouding in the equatorial Indian ocean,” Pai said.

“In this situation, the monsoon competes with the MJO for clouds. However, as the MJO continues to move eastward towards Indonesia and the western Pacific, we expect to see the revival of monsoon activity. It is moving slowly, but we expect this to happen over the next few days.”

The IMD last week predicted that India would receive 102 per cent of the normal rainfall this year. Scientists say the deficiency in June is expected to be made up by rainfall in the next three months of the monsoon season.

The IMD has also predicted that the 2010 monsoon would become increasingly wetter with September likely to be the wettest of the four months.

Analysis of monsoon behaviour over the past 30 years has revealed a wide variation in the onset dates in northwest India. In 1987, the monsoon had arrived in Delhi on July 26, which is 27 days late.


The Telegraph, 1 July, 2010, http://www.telegraphindia.com/1100701/jsp/nation/story_12631612.jsp


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