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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Monsoon worries bothering PMEAC

Monsoon worries bothering PMEAC

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published Published on Aug 5, 2011   modified Modified on Aug 5, 2011

-The Economic Times

 

The latest forecast of the Met office suggesting a weakening of the south-west monsoon during the second half of the monsoon season is not cause for panic. It is the distribution of rainfall across space and time rather than the aggregate percentages that matter for the farm sector. The good news is that both the spatial and temporal distribution of rainfall has been satisfactory so far.

A good reservoir position also augurs well for a reasonable kharif crop. The Prime Minister's Economic Advisory Council has forecast a 3% growth in the farm sector in 2011-12 based on these parameters. This year, the Met Office has forecast a normal monsoon. However, rainfall for the country as a whole during August-September is likely to be 90% of the long period average (LPA).

Along with the 429.2 mm of rain that the country has received so far, this would bring up rainfall for this monsoon to 821.2 mm. That makes it "below normal", but nowhere close to the 698 mm in the drought year of 2009. However, it is ironic that the fortunes of an emerging economic superpower critically depend on the rain gods. A crippling dependence on monsoons is untenable.

To end this, the long-term neglect of planning for agriculture in a holistic fashion must end, and large allocations have to be made for the purpose, preferably ending subsidies and diverting these funds for investment. Farm productivity can be raised through sustained investment in dams and irrigation canals (given that 80% of yearly rainfall comes with the south-west monsoon), modern crop husbandry, new hybrid and bio-engineered seeds. Water is a scarce resource.

The government, therefore , needs to build more storage capacity, optimise water use and also collect user charges that can justify the investment in irrigation systems. India needs to invest in supplements to canal irrigation as well. Wells, ponds and tanks store rain water and recharge aquifers. Saurashtra is a good example of using check dams to recharge the water table. This played a big role in Gujarat recording the highest farm growth of 10.9% during 2001 to 2009. Other states can emulate this example.


The Economic Times, 5 August, 2011, http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/editorial/monsoon-worries-bothering-pmeac/articleshow/9488622.cms


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