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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Next COVID-19 wave can’t be predicted: experts -Jacob Koshy

Next COVID-19 wave can’t be predicted: experts -Jacob Koshy

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published Published on Mar 3, 2022   modified Modified on Mar 3, 2022

-The Hindu

There is absolutely no way to forecast the timing, says Professor behind SUTRA model

Independent experts have criticised a recent modelling study from a group of researchers at the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur that predicts a fourth COVID wave in India around June.

The study, uploaded on the preprint server, Medrxiv, which hosts scientific work that is yet to be published in a peer-reviewed journal forecasts the wave to begin precisely on June 22, 2022, reaching its peak on August 23, 2022 and ending on October 24, 2022. For its analysis, it takes the trajectory of the coronavirus epidemic in Zimbabwe, because its history most resembles the case trend in India, and concludes that because Zimbabwe has seen a fourth wave, India is a fait accompli.

The authors, Sabara Parshad Rajeshbhai, Subhra Sankar Dhar and Shalabh, of the Department of Statistics and Mathematics, IIT-K, add caveats that the future wave could be affected by the nature of the existing variant that would emerge as well as vaccination coverage.

The Hindu could not immediately reach out to the authors for comment.

“The findings from this study are aimed to help and sensitise the people. For example, a few countries including the Government of India have started to provide booster dose to a section of people, which may reduce the impact of the fourth wave in a long run,” their paper notes.

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The Hindu, 3 March, 2022, https://www.thehindu.com/news/national/experts-denounce-study-that-forecasts-fourth-covid-wave-in-june/article65184027.ece?homepage=true


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