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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Normal monsoon may give UPA some help

Normal monsoon may give UPA some help

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published Published on Apr 27, 2013   modified Modified on Apr 27, 2013
-The Times of India


Rains could bring some relief to the UPA in the pre-election year with the meteorological department on Friday projecting a countrywide normal monsoon for 2013. The forecast should allay government's fears of food inflation jumping again over the 10% mark after being only partially tamed in the last quarter of the financial year.

The weather office said that rainfall would be within the normal range - 98% of the long term average of 89 cm for the June-September period. Rainfall between 96%-104% of the 50-year average is considered normal by the Met department.

The strong likelihood of a bumper crop three years on the trot is bound to be music to the ears of government, which approaches the 2014 Lok Sabha elections with several handicaps, including higher prices.

In fact, the sense of respite was evident as soon as the prediction of the meteorological department came in, with science and technology minister Jaipal Reddy celebrating it as "very good news for farmers".

A healthy agrarian economy pumping up rural incomes also pushes up demand of goods, including consumer products that could give the much-required fillip to the industry reeling under a tight investment environment.

Besides, rains and resultant increase in food production would provide the government legroom to increase the minimum support price (MSP) for farmers - a political essential for the party in power a year before general elections, without having to worry about higher prices.

The increased production riding on good rains would partially offset the inflationary trends that kick in with increased MSP for farm goods.

Signs of possible trouble were available as the weather department suggested that the southern states of Tamil Nadu, Kerala and Karnataka could suffer a dip in rains towards the end of June-September monsoon spell.

Lower than average rainfall in the southern states this year could set alarm bells ringing, especially in Tamil Nadu where increasing power shortage has been a headache for Jayalalithaa-led AIADMK government.

Fortunately for UPA, Andhra Pradesh, where it has huge stakes, should escape the dry spell.

In 2012, the monsoon had fallen below the predicted numbers - averaging 7 points below - and the impact was borne heaviest by states like Maharashtra and Karnataka.


The Times of India, 27 April, 2013, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/Normal-monsoon-may-give-UPA-some-help/articleshow/19749469.cms


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