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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Officials forecast normal monsoon as El Niño looms

Officials forecast normal monsoon as El Niño looms

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published Published on Apr 22, 2014   modified Modified on Apr 22, 2014
-Bloomberg

 

Actual rainfall may be five per cent more or less than the prediction

The monsoon in India, which provides about 70 per cent of annual rainfall, will be normal this year amid forecasts for the emergence of an El Niño that previously caused droughts, government officials said.

Rain could be 96 per cent of a 50-year average of 89 cm (35 inches) in the June-September period, said two officials with direct knowledge of the matter, requesting not to be identified before an announcement by the state weather forecaster on Thursday. Actual rainfall may be five per cent more or less than the prediction, the officials said.

The monsoon is the main source of irrigation for India's 235 million farmers and planting of crops from rice to sugar and soybeans are dependent on timely arrival of the seasonal rains as more than 50 per cent of farm land is rain-fed. Agriculture represents about 14 per cent of Asia's third-largest economy, where consumer price inflation averaged 10.07 per cent in 2013.

The India Meteorological Department will issue a detailed monsoon forecast in June after this month's first long-range prediction, the officials said. Showers between 96 per cent and 104 per cent of the average are considered normal by the department. B P Yadav, a spokesman of India Meteorological Department, declined to comment.

El Nino odds

Signs have been detected that El Niño is imminent, presaging changes to global weather patterns in the months ahead, the World Meteorological Organization said last week. The chances that an El Niño will develop are growing, the US Climate Prediction Center said this month, boosting the odds to 65 per cent from 52 per cent. The probability is over 70 per cent, Australia's Bureau of Meteorology said on April 8.

El Niños occur irregularly every two to seven years and are associated with warmer than average years. They tend to lead to abnormally dry conditions over parts of Australia, the Philippines and Brazil, and to more intense storms in the Gulf of Mexico. Their counterpart, La Ninas, are associated with cooler years.

India received normal or more-than-normal rains during only three El Niño years of the past 10 occurrences while the remaining were drought years, according to data from the meteorological department. Monsoon rainfall was the least in almost four decades in 2009, when El Niño occurred last, data show. Rice and oilseed harvests fell 10 per cent, according to Agriculture Ministry data.

Production of foodgrain from rice to wheat, lentils and corn is seen at a record 263.2 million tonnes in the year ending June, after a more than normal monsoon and cooler winter boosted yields, according to the ministry.


The Business Standard, 22 April, 2014, http://www.business-standard.com/article/current-affairs/officials-forecast-normal-monsoon-as-el-ni%C3%B1o-looms-114042200149_1.html


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