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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | On December 8, tune in for 2014 Lok Sabha polls forecast

On December 8, tune in for 2014 Lok Sabha polls forecast

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published Published on Oct 5, 2013   modified Modified on Oct 5, 2013
-The Times of India


NEW DELHI: Assembly elections in Delhi will be held on December 4. The Election Commission (EC) on Friday announced assembly polls in five states between November 11 and December 4, setting the ball rolling for what is set to be the semifinal between Congress and BJP before their big face-off in the 2014 Lok Sabha polls.

Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Chhattisgarh are expected to witness virtually a straight contest between the two biggies while in Delhi, a near-bipolar polity all these decades, they will be required to fight off a spirited challenge from debutant Arvind Kejriwal's Aam Aadmi Party.

In tiny Mizoram, the fifth state in play, the fight will be between Congress and Mizo National Front. BJP has only a token presence in the northeastern state.

Results of all the elections will be announced on December 8.

While the outcome will provide tailwind to whoever fares better in Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Chhattisgarh and Delhi, the coming match-up stands out also because they will mark the introduction of "none of the above" (NOTA) option for the voter who often despairs at the sameness of choices on offer. As directed by the Supreme Court on September 27, the electronic voting machines will feature a NOTA button as well.

Besides, in another first directed by the top court, this time it will be mandatory for candidates to fill up all columns in the nomination form. SC's insistence on complete disclosure is a boost for the votaries of transparency.

Delhi, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan and Mizoram will have a single-day poll on December 4, November 25, December 1 and December 4, respectively.

Chhattisgarh will have a two-phase exercise, on November 11 and 19, to ensure peaceful conduct of polls where Maoists, increasingly desperate, pose a formidable challenge.

As many as 18 Naxalite-infested constituencies in Bastar region (south Chhattisgarh) and Kanker and Rajnandgaon (north Chhattisgarh) will go to polls in the first phase, facilitating maximum deployment of the around 50,000 troops placed at EC's disposal. The remaining 72 constituencies of Chhattisgarh will elect their representatives on November 19.

Barometer for Congress's showpiece schemes

Each of the five contests will be shaped by local factors. However, they will also be a barometer for whether welfare measures - from Food Security Act and street vendors' bill to higher support prices for farmers - can buffer Congress from the UPA's "incumbency burden", in short, whether the perception of corruption, inflation and poor governance has undermined Congress's prospects.

It will also be seen as an early test of BJP's calculation in projecting Gujarat CM Narendra Modi as the party's PM candidate. BJP leaders like LK Advani and Sushma Swaraj had argued for Modi's declaration as party's nominee for the PMO to be put off until after the state polls, but were overwhelmed by the majority who felt having the Gujarat CM as the saffron spearhead would energize the party's base in the election-bound states.

The challenge will be a high-stakes game also for other individuals. Delhi CM Sheila Dikshit, having posted three straight victories, enjoys a heft in Delhi affairs which a normal executive of a small state with only seven Lok Sabha seats can only dream of. Dikshit, a clear Rahul Gandhi favourite, will rise higher in the party's pecking order if she pulls off a win yet again against stiff odds.

Ditto for Shivraj Singh Chouhan and Raman Singh, the incumbents in Madhya Pradesh and Chhattisgarh, who already enjoy semi-satrap status for having regained power five years ago. Rajasthan CM Ashok Gehlot, who survived multiple challenges to complete his term, has solidified his position as the pre-eminent Congress leader in the state. A victory will boost his standing in the party because it will, just like the one Congress expects Dikshit to grab, put a spanner in Modi's works.

While announcing the schedule, chief election commissioner VS Sampath said, "The model code of conduct comes into force from this very moment." He was flanked by election commissioners HS Brahma and SNA Zaidi.


The Times of India, 5 October, 2013, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/india/On-December-8-tune-in-for-2014-Lok-Sabha-polls-forecast/articleshow/23541896.cms


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