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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Outflow of Finance and Impact on Third World -Prabhat Patnaik

Outflow of Finance and Impact on Third World -Prabhat Patnaik

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published Published on Nov 21, 2022   modified Modified on Nov 22, 2022

-Newsclick.in

World capitalism is entering a new phase in which Third World economies will witness persistent outflow of finance, even if they raise interest rates in tandem with US rates.

There are two defining and portentous features of the current world economic situation. One, which is well discussed, is the world-wide increase in interest rates in response to the pervasive inflationary upsurge; it would indubitably generate recession and unemployment, which, notwithstanding all protestations to the contrary, is the real objective behind it.

The second feature, which is less discussed, is the outflow of finance from elsewhere in the world to the US that is contributing to a strengthening of the dollar vis-à-vis virtually all other currencies, with the sole and ironical exception of the Russian rouble. While all major currencies are weakening against the dollar, including the euro and the pound-sterling, what concerns us here in particular is the weakening of Third World currencies, of which the rupee is a prime example.

In the current calendar year an estimated $200 billion has already flown out of India which amounts to a third of India’s exchange reserves. These reserves themselves have been drawn down by over $100 billion by the Reserve Bank of India in its bid to shore up the rupee against the dollar; but despite such drawing down, the rupee has depreciated by about 10%.

There is a belief that financial flows across nations are determined primarily by interest rate differentials, so that the current inflow into the US is a result of the US having raised its interest rates to a greater extent than other countries. From this it follows that when the other countries raise their interest rates by as much as the US has done, they would no longer face such capital outflows. This, however, is not true.

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Newsclick.in, 21 November, 2022, https://www.newsclick.in/Outflow-Finance-Impact-Third-World


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