Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 150
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
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Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 151
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::index() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 151
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\AssetMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/AssetMiddleware.php, line 97
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Warning (512): Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853 [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48]
Code Context
            if (Configure::read('debug')) {

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        LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Politically opportune data -Jayati Ghosh    </title>
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-The Indian Express

GDP estimates are advance figures, but by the time they are revised only staid economists will be interested in them

Unless we simply dreamt it, demonetisation delivered a massive shock to the economy in early November, which continued well..."/>
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-The Indian Express

GDP estimates are advance figures, but by the time they are revised only staid economists will be interested in them

Unless we simply dreamt it, demonetisation delivered a massive shock to the economy in early November, which continued well..." />
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                            <div align="justify">-The Indian Express<br /><br /><em>GDP estimates are advance figures, but by the time they are revised only staid economists will be interested in them<br /></em><br />Unless we simply dreamt it, demonetisation delivered a massive shock to the economy in early November, which continued well into December because of slow pace remonetisation. The ensuing liquidity crunch affected most informal economic activity and some formal business, and economists generally agreed that declines in demand and disruption of supply chains would have depressed economic activity and employment.<br /><br />The Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) begs to differ, in its latest &ldquo;advance estimates&rdquo; of GDP for the financial year, including the third quarter, October to December 2016. A month ago, the CSO had projected real economic growth for the year at 7.1 per cent, without factoring in the impact of demonetisation because of lack of data. Now, with some more recent data that supposedly takes that impact into account, its projection of economic growth for the year is still 7.1 per cent. If this is to be believed, demonetisation had no impact on the economy in terms of the aggregate national income.<br /><br />Not surprisingly, this has been seized upon by politicians. The prime minister quickly used this in the UP election speeches to mock the Harvard and Oxford economists (read Amartya Sen and Manmohan Singh) who had predicted negative growth impact. The Congress has questioned the veracity of the data, bringing up one more example of an institution that really should be above the political fray getting involved in it.<br /><br />Advance estimates are, by definition, rough exercises, based on only a subset of the usual indicators, and typically get revised, often drastically. Placing too much significance on them is not a wise idea, although it may be a politically fruitful one. Also, ever since the CSO changed its methodology for deriving the GDP figures, there have been questions about its comparability with the past data and whether this is the correct way of capturing the reality. These concerns are intensified by the lack of back series of national income data based on the new method.<br /><br />Some part of the estimates is uncontroversial. For example, agriculture was expected to do much better following the excellent monsoon after a succession of bad years; if anything the projected growth rate of 4.4 per cent is less than anticipated. Similarly, a big part of the GDP increase has come because of public administration, defence and other spending, which grew at 11.9 per cent in the third quarter, and contributed nearly a quarter of the year-on-year increase in GDP.<br /><br />Please <a href="http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/demonetisation-gdp-data-remonetisation-cashless-economy-indian-economy-4553196/" title="http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/demonetisation-gdp-data-remonetisation-cashless-economy-indian-economy-4553196/">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/demonetisation-gdp-data-remonetisation-cashless-economy-indian-economy-4553196/" class="re" target="_blank">The Indian Express, 4 March, 2017, http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/demonetisation-gdp-data-remonetisation-cashless-economy-indian-economy-4553196/</a><div class="clear"></div>
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GDP estimates are advance figures, but by the time they are revised only staid economists will be interested in them

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    <h1 class="cat-box-title">Politically opportune data -Jayati Ghosh</h1>
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                            <div align="justify">-The Indian Express<br /><br /><em>GDP estimates are advance figures, but by the time they are revised only staid economists will be interested in them<br /></em><br />Unless we simply dreamt it, demonetisation delivered a massive shock to the economy in early November, which continued well into December because of slow pace remonetisation. The ensuing liquidity crunch affected most informal economic activity and some formal business, and economists generally agreed that declines in demand and disruption of supply chains would have depressed economic activity and employment.<br /><br />The Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) begs to differ, in its latest &ldquo;advance estimates&rdquo; of GDP for the financial year, including the third quarter, October to December 2016. A month ago, the CSO had projected real economic growth for the year at 7.1 per cent, without factoring in the impact of demonetisation because of lack of data. Now, with some more recent data that supposedly takes that impact into account, its projection of economic growth for the year is still 7.1 per cent. If this is to be believed, demonetisation had no impact on the economy in terms of the aggregate national income.<br /><br />Not surprisingly, this has been seized upon by politicians. The prime minister quickly used this in the UP election speeches to mock the Harvard and Oxford economists (read Amartya Sen and Manmohan Singh) who had predicted negative growth impact. The Congress has questioned the veracity of the data, bringing up one more example of an institution that really should be above the political fray getting involved in it.<br /><br />Advance estimates are, by definition, rough exercises, based on only a subset of the usual indicators, and typically get revised, often drastically. Placing too much significance on them is not a wise idea, although it may be a politically fruitful one. Also, ever since the CSO changed its methodology for deriving the GDP figures, there have been questions about its comparability with the past data and whether this is the correct way of capturing the reality. These concerns are intensified by the lack of back series of national income data based on the new method.<br /><br />Some part of the estimates is uncontroversial. For example, agriculture was expected to do much better following the excellent monsoon after a succession of bad years; if anything the projected growth rate of 4.4 per cent is less than anticipated. Similarly, a big part of the GDP increase has come because of public administration, defence and other spending, which grew at 11.9 per cent in the third quarter, and contributed nearly a quarter of the year-on-year increase in GDP.<br /><br />Please <a href="http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/demonetisation-gdp-data-remonetisation-cashless-economy-indian-economy-4553196/" title="http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/demonetisation-gdp-data-remonetisation-cashless-economy-indian-economy-4553196/">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/demonetisation-gdp-data-remonetisation-cashless-economy-indian-economy-4553196/" class="re" target="_blank">The Indian Express, 4 March, 2017, http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/demonetisation-gdp-data-remonetisation-cashless-economy-indian-economy-4553196/</a><div class="clear"></div>
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GDP estimates are advance figures, but by the time they are revised only staid economists will be interested in them

Unless we simply dreamt it, demonetisation delivered a massive shock to the economy in early November, which continued well..."/>
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                            <div align="justify">-The Indian Express<br /><br /><em>GDP estimates are advance figures, but by the time they are revised only staid economists will be interested in them<br /></em><br />Unless we simply dreamt it, demonetisation delivered a massive shock to the economy in early November, which continued well into December because of slow pace remonetisation. The ensuing liquidity crunch affected most informal economic activity and some formal business, and economists generally agreed that declines in demand and disruption of supply chains would have depressed economic activity and employment.<br /><br />The Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) begs to differ, in its latest &ldquo;advance estimates&rdquo; of GDP for the financial year, including the third quarter, October to December 2016. A month ago, the CSO had projected real economic growth for the year at 7.1 per cent, without factoring in the impact of demonetisation because of lack of data. Now, with some more recent data that supposedly takes that impact into account, its projection of economic growth for the year is still 7.1 per cent. If this is to be believed, demonetisation had no impact on the economy in terms of the aggregate national income.<br /><br />Not surprisingly, this has been seized upon by politicians. The prime minister quickly used this in the UP election speeches to mock the Harvard and Oxford economists (read Amartya Sen and Manmohan Singh) who had predicted negative growth impact. The Congress has questioned the veracity of the data, bringing up one more example of an institution that really should be above the political fray getting involved in it.<br /><br />Advance estimates are, by definition, rough exercises, based on only a subset of the usual indicators, and typically get revised, often drastically. Placing too much significance on them is not a wise idea, although it may be a politically fruitful one. Also, ever since the CSO changed its methodology for deriving the GDP figures, there have been questions about its comparability with the past data and whether this is the correct way of capturing the reality. These concerns are intensified by the lack of back series of national income data based on the new method.<br /><br />Some part of the estimates is uncontroversial. For example, agriculture was expected to do much better following the excellent monsoon after a succession of bad years; if anything the projected growth rate of 4.4 per cent is less than anticipated. Similarly, a big part of the GDP increase has come because of public administration, defence and other spending, which grew at 11.9 per cent in the third quarter, and contributed nearly a quarter of the year-on-year increase in GDP.<br /><br />Please <a href="http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/demonetisation-gdp-data-remonetisation-cashless-economy-indian-economy-4553196/" title="http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/demonetisation-gdp-data-remonetisation-cashless-economy-indian-economy-4553196/">click here</a> to read more. <br /></div>                                                           
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    <br><a href="http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/demonetisation-gdp-data-remonetisation-cashless-economy-indian-economy-4553196/" class="re" target="_blank">The Indian Express, 4 March, 2017, http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/demonetisation-gdp-data-remonetisation-cashless-economy-indian-economy-4553196/</a><div class="clear"></div>
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Politically opportune data -Jayati Ghosh

Published on Mar 4, 2017   Modified on Mar 4, 2017

-The Indian Express GDP estimates are advance figures, but by the time they are revised only staid economists will be interested in them Unless we simply dreamt it, demonetisation delivered a massive shock to the economy in early November, which continued well into December because of slow pace remonetisation. The ensuing liquidity crunch affected most informal economic activity and some formal business, and economists generally agreed that declines in demand and disruption of supply chains would have depressed economic activity and employment. The Central Statistical Organisation (CSO) begs to differ, in its latest “advance estimates” of GDP for the financial year, including the third quarter, October to December 2016. A month ago, the CSO had projected real economic growth for the year at 7.1 per cent, without factoring in the impact of demonetisation because of lack of data. Now, with some more recent data that supposedly takes that impact into account, its projection of economic growth for the year is still 7.1 per cent. If this is to be believed, demonetisation had no impact on the economy in terms of the aggregate national income. Not surprisingly, this has been seized upon by politicians. The prime minister quickly used this in the UP election speeches to mock the Harvard and Oxford economists (read Amartya Sen and Manmohan Singh) who had predicted negative growth impact. The Congress has questioned the veracity of the data, bringing up one more example of an institution that really should be above the political fray getting involved in it. Advance estimates are, by definition, rough exercises, based on only a subset of the usual indicators, and typically get revised, often drastically. Placing too much significance on them is not a wise idea, although it may be a politically fruitful one. Also, ever since the CSO changed its methodology for deriving the GDP figures, there have been questions about its comparability with the past data and whether this is the correct way of capturing the reality. These concerns are intensified by the lack of back series of national income data based on the new method. Some part of the estimates is uncontroversial. For example, agriculture was expected to do much better following the excellent monsoon after a succession of bad years; if anything the projected growth rate of 4.4 per cent is less than anticipated. Similarly, a big part of the GDP increase has come because of public administration, defence and other spending, which grew at 11.9 per cent in the third quarter, and contributed nearly a quarter of the year-on-year increase in GDP. Please click here to read more.

The Indian Express, 4 March, 2017, http://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/demonetisation-gdp-data-remonetisation-cashless-economy-indian-economy-4553196/

Tagged with: Economic Growth GDP estimates GDP growth GDP growth rate

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