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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Politics of exclusion and disenfranchisement is hurting investment and India's cooperative spirit -Kaushik Basu

Politics of exclusion and disenfranchisement is hurting investment and India's cooperative spirit -Kaushik Basu

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published Published on Dec 26, 2019   modified Modified on Dec 26, 2019
-The Indian Express

What economists do not like to dwell on and what Karl Polanyi had noted a long time ago is that the economy is ultimately embedded in society, institutions and politics. When these are damaged, the economy begins to stall.

With India’s deep political troubles, and protest marches breaking out all over the country, it may seem odd to be writing on economics. Yet, it would also be wrong not to. India’s economy is now spiraling downwards, and there is an urgent need for corrective action. Hence, despite my initial misgivings, I devote this column to India’s economy and what the hard numbers tell.

The signs of an economic slowdown were visible from 2017. But, the numbers on the economy that have emerged over the past few months are alarming. The contours of the problem are visible from the broad macroeconomic aggregates. From 2004, India got used to being referred to as one of the world’s fastest-growing economies, and indeed, it was, for a few years, among three or four of the fastest-growing economies in the world. If we take the latest official growth rate figure of 4.5 per cent released by the government, and insert this in the chart of all countries’ growth rates for 2019 constructed by the IMF, India is no longer in the top three or four. In fact, it is not in the top 30 or 40. This is an alarming drop in rank. Further, the nation’s investment-to-GDP ratio is declining, and non-oil exports are actually shrinking. One strong indicator of the overall growth slowdown is electricity generation. Electricity generation growth is now lowest in at least three decades. It is even lower than what happened during the big economic crisis of 1991. In October this year, electricity output contracted by 12.2 per cent.

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The Indian Express, 25 December, 2019, https://indianexpress.com/article/opinion/columns/indian-economy-slowdown-price-hike-6183386/


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