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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Poor analysis, wrong conclusions in recent research paper, claims a group of scientists -MT Saju

Poor analysis, wrong conclusions in recent research paper, claims a group of scientists -MT Saju

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published Published on Aug 25, 2017   modified Modified on Aug 25, 2017
-The Times of India

CHENNAI: Irked by an attempt to link extreme temperature and farmer suicides in a recent paper, published by the PNAS (Proceedings of the National Academy Sciences of the United States) titled "Climate change and agricultural suicides in India" which claimed that 'temperature during India's main agricultural growing season has a strong positive effect on annual suicide rates, a group of scientists has issued a joint-press release questioning the authenticity of facts mentioned in the paper.

In a joint-statement, T Jayaraman, professor, Tata Institute of Social Sciences (TISS), Madhura Swaminathan, professor, Indian Statistical Institute, Bengaluru and Kamal Kumar Murari, assistant professor, (TISS), said, "it's 'incorrect to link extreme temperatures and farmer suicides in the paper authored by Tamma A Carleton."

Using state-level data for 1967 to 2013, the author suggests that an increase in 1°C temperature in a single day can cause 70 suicides. It also claimed that the evidence leads to the conclusion that it is the damage to crops by extreme temperatures that leads to economic hardship and suicide, the signatories said in a press release issued on Thursday.

"These claims are a consequence of the uncritical use of data, bad assumptions, flawed analysis and unacceptable neglect of the existing literature on global warming and Indian agriculture as well as farmer suicides. Taking the conclusions of the paper at face value would lead to incorrect policy measures. The paper is marked by several errors." they said.

The paper, according to the scientists, uses suicide data incorrectly. "It wrongly identifies extreme temperatures for crop production. It identifies only kharif as the relevant agricultural season in which to consider extreme temperatures in, and wrongly identifies the relevant crops," said the release.

As a result, the meaning of the correlation that the author claims to find between extreme temperatures and suicides is unclear. The manner in which the paper analyses the link between extreme temperatures and crop production is wrong, it added.

The signatories to this press note said they have conducted a detailed study of the impact of extreme temperatures on crop production in Karnataka, one among several such studies conducted by other responsible Indian and foreign authors. "No such study provides any corroborative evidence for the dramatic conclusions of this paper," they said.

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The Times of India, 24 August, 2017, http://timesofindia.indiatimes.com/city/chennai/poor-analysis-wrong-conclusions-in-recent-research-paper-claims-a-group-of-scientists/articleshow/60211844.cms?from


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