Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 150
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
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Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 151
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Code Context


        trigger_error($message, E_USER_DEPRECATED);

    }
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 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php.'
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deprecationWarning - CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311
Cake\Http\ServerRequest::offsetGet() - CORE/src/Http/ServerRequest.php, line 2421
App\Controller\ArtileDetailController::index() - APP/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line 151
Cake\Controller\Controller::invokeAction() - CORE/src/Controller/Controller.php, line 610
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::_invoke() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 120
Cake\Http\ActionDispatcher::dispatch() - CORE/src/Http/ActionDispatcher.php, line 94
Cake\Http\BaseApplication::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/BaseApplication.php, line 235
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Routing\Middleware\RoutingMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Routing/Middleware/RoutingMiddleware.php, line 162
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
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Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Error\Middleware\ErrorHandlerMiddleware::__invoke() - CORE/src/Error/Middleware/ErrorHandlerMiddleware.php, line 96
Cake\Http\Runner::__invoke() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 65
Cake\Http\Runner::run() - CORE/src/Http/Runner.php, line 51
Cake\Http\Server::run() - CORE/src/Http/Server.php, line 98

Warning (512): Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853 [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48]
Code Context
            if (Configure::read('debug')) {

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        LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Poor Economics: Has India’s poverty really fallen? -Santosh Mehrotra & Jajati Parida    </title>
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Dataset and methodological weaknesses cast doubt on recent poverty estimates that claim drastic reduction

Bhalla, Bhasin and Virmani in a working paper (IMF), claimed India&rsquo;s poverty, per a $1.9 per person per day poverty line (at PPP), was 0.9% of..."/>
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Dataset and methodological weaknesses cast doubt on recent poverty estimates that claim drastic reduction

Bhalla, Bhasin and Virmani in a working paper (IMF), claimed India&rsquo;s poverty, per a $1.9 per person per day poverty line (at PPP), was 0.9% of..." />
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    <h1 class="cat-box-title">Poor Economics: Has India’s poverty really fallen? -Santosh Mehrotra & Jajati Parida</h1>
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                            <p style="text-align:justify">-Financial Express</p><p style="text-align:justify"><em>Dataset and methodological weaknesses cast doubt on recent poverty estimates that claim drastic reduction</em></p><p style="text-align:justify">Bhalla, Bhasin and Virmani in a working paper (IMF), claimed India&rsquo;s poverty, per a $1.9 per person per day poverty line (at PPP), was 0.9% of the population in 2020. Thanks to government transfer of free rations of 5 kg per person month, it fell to 0.8% (from 0.9% in 2019). Roy and de Velt, for the World Bank (WB), claim poverty fell from 22.5% to 10.2% between 2011 and 2019. Remarkably, both papers contradict the WB&rsquo;s official publications, which state that, as a result of Covid, poverty will increase by 88-115 million in 2020, and the largest contributor to this would be India.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Naturally, the media in India has lapped up these conclusions, and purveyed them widely, to the delight of the government. Therefore, the papers deserve a thorough examination, both for their methodology and findings.</p><p style="text-align:justify">First, Bhalla et al use National Accounts Statistics (NAS) to estimate private final consumption expenditure, then used to estimate poverty. Practically no one in the world uses NAS estimates of consumption. It overestimates consumption. That has never prevented Bhalla from using it.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Second, they don&rsquo;t use household surveys of consumption expenditure (CES), widely used for estimating poverty (including by the WB, relying upon Living Standard Measurement Surveys). Historically, in India, poverty estimation has used the CES. The last one, in 2017-18, followed demonetisation and a hurried GST, which adversely affected the unorganised sector that employs 85% of non-farm workers. That CES showed contraction of rural consumption by 8% and a mere 2% rise in urban, compared to 2011-12.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Third, they ignore data on inequality, rising unemployment, falling employment rates, falling wage rates and rising food inflation.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Please <a href="https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/poor-economics-has-indias-poverty-really-fallen/2508324/lite/" title="https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/poor-economics-has-indias-poverty-really-fallen/2508324/lite/">click here</a> to read more.&nbsp;<br />&nbsp;</p>                                                           
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    <br><a href="https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/poor-economics-has-indias-poverty-really-fallen/2508324/lite/" class="re" target="_blank">Financial Express, 30 April, 2022, https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/poor-economics-has-indias-poverty-really-fallen/2508324/lite/</a><div class="clear"></div>
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Dataset and methodological weaknesses cast doubt on recent poverty estimates that claim drastic reduction

Bhalla, Bhasin and Virmani in a working paper (IMF), claimed India&rsquo;s poverty, per a $1.9 per person per day poverty line (at PPP), was 0.9% of..."/>
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Dataset and methodological weaknesses cast doubt on recent poverty estimates that claim drastic reduction

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    <h1 class="cat-box-title">Poor Economics: Has India’s poverty really fallen? -Santosh Mehrotra & Jajati Parida</h1>
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                            <p style="text-align:justify">-Financial Express</p><p style="text-align:justify"><em>Dataset and methodological weaknesses cast doubt on recent poverty estimates that claim drastic reduction</em></p><p style="text-align:justify">Bhalla, Bhasin and Virmani in a working paper (IMF), claimed India&rsquo;s poverty, per a $1.9 per person per day poverty line (at PPP), was 0.9% of the population in 2020. Thanks to government transfer of free rations of 5 kg per person month, it fell to 0.8% (from 0.9% in 2019). Roy and de Velt, for the World Bank (WB), claim poverty fell from 22.5% to 10.2% between 2011 and 2019. Remarkably, both papers contradict the WB&rsquo;s official publications, which state that, as a result of Covid, poverty will increase by 88-115 million in 2020, and the largest contributor to this would be India.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Naturally, the media in India has lapped up these conclusions, and purveyed them widely, to the delight of the government. Therefore, the papers deserve a thorough examination, both for their methodology and findings.</p><p style="text-align:justify">First, Bhalla et al use National Accounts Statistics (NAS) to estimate private final consumption expenditure, then used to estimate poverty. Practically no one in the world uses NAS estimates of consumption. It overestimates consumption. That has never prevented Bhalla from using it.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Second, they don&rsquo;t use household surveys of consumption expenditure (CES), widely used for estimating poverty (including by the WB, relying upon Living Standard Measurement Surveys). Historically, in India, poverty estimation has used the CES. The last one, in 2017-18, followed demonetisation and a hurried GST, which adversely affected the unorganised sector that employs 85% of non-farm workers. That CES showed contraction of rural consumption by 8% and a mere 2% rise in urban, compared to 2011-12.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Third, they ignore data on inequality, rising unemployment, falling employment rates, falling wage rates and rising food inflation.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Please <a href="https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/poor-economics-has-indias-poverty-really-fallen/2508324/lite/" title="https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/poor-economics-has-indias-poverty-really-fallen/2508324/lite/">click here</a> to read more.&nbsp;<br />&nbsp;</p>                                                           
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    <br><a href="https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/poor-economics-has-indias-poverty-really-fallen/2508324/lite/" class="re" target="_blank">Financial Express, 30 April, 2022, https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/poor-economics-has-indias-poverty-really-fallen/2508324/lite/</a><div class="clear"></div>
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        LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Poor Economics: Has India’s poverty really fallen? -Santosh Mehrotra & Jajati Parida    </title>
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Dataset and methodological weaknesses cast doubt on recent poverty estimates that claim drastic reduction

Bhalla, Bhasin and Virmani in a working paper (IMF), claimed India&rsquo;s poverty, per a $1.9 per person per day poverty line (at PPP), was 0.9% of..."/>
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     <meta property="og:description" content="-Financial Express

Dataset and methodological weaknesses cast doubt on recent poverty estimates that claim drastic reduction

Bhalla, Bhasin and Virmani in a working paper (IMF), claimed India&rsquo;s poverty, per a $1.9 per person per day poverty line (at PPP), was 0.9% of..." />
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    <h1 class="cat-box-title">Poor Economics: Has India’s poverty really fallen? -Santosh Mehrotra & Jajati Parida</h1>
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                            <p style="text-align:justify">-Financial Express</p><p style="text-align:justify"><em>Dataset and methodological weaknesses cast doubt on recent poverty estimates that claim drastic reduction</em></p><p style="text-align:justify">Bhalla, Bhasin and Virmani in a working paper (IMF), claimed India&rsquo;s poverty, per a $1.9 per person per day poverty line (at PPP), was 0.9% of the population in 2020. Thanks to government transfer of free rations of 5 kg per person month, it fell to 0.8% (from 0.9% in 2019). Roy and de Velt, for the World Bank (WB), claim poverty fell from 22.5% to 10.2% between 2011 and 2019. Remarkably, both papers contradict the WB&rsquo;s official publications, which state that, as a result of Covid, poverty will increase by 88-115 million in 2020, and the largest contributor to this would be India.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Naturally, the media in India has lapped up these conclusions, and purveyed them widely, to the delight of the government. Therefore, the papers deserve a thorough examination, both for their methodology and findings.</p><p style="text-align:justify">First, Bhalla et al use National Accounts Statistics (NAS) to estimate private final consumption expenditure, then used to estimate poverty. Practically no one in the world uses NAS estimates of consumption. It overestimates consumption. That has never prevented Bhalla from using it.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Second, they don&rsquo;t use household surveys of consumption expenditure (CES), widely used for estimating poverty (including by the WB, relying upon Living Standard Measurement Surveys). Historically, in India, poverty estimation has used the CES. The last one, in 2017-18, followed demonetisation and a hurried GST, which adversely affected the unorganised sector that employs 85% of non-farm workers. That CES showed contraction of rural consumption by 8% and a mere 2% rise in urban, compared to 2011-12.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Third, they ignore data on inequality, rising unemployment, falling employment rates, falling wage rates and rising food inflation.</p><p style="text-align:justify">Please <a href="https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/poor-economics-has-indias-poverty-really-fallen/2508324/lite/" title="https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/poor-economics-has-indias-poverty-really-fallen/2508324/lite/">click here</a> to read more.&nbsp;<br />&nbsp;</p>                                                           
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    <br><a href="https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/poor-economics-has-indias-poverty-really-fallen/2508324/lite/" class="re" target="_blank">Financial Express, 30 April, 2022, https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/poor-economics-has-indias-poverty-really-fallen/2508324/lite/</a><div class="clear"></div>
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Poor Economics: Has India’s poverty really fallen? -Santosh Mehrotra & Jajati Parida

Published on Apr 30, 2022   Modified on May 1, 2022

-Financial Express Dataset and methodological weaknesses cast doubt on recent poverty estimates that claim drastic reduction Bhalla, Bhasin and Virmani in a working paper (IMF), claimed India’s poverty, per a $1.9 per person per day poverty line (at PPP), was 0.9% of the population in 2020. Thanks to government transfer of free rations of 5 kg per person month, it fell to 0.8% (from 0.9% in 2019). Roy and de Velt, for the World Bank (WB), claim poverty fell from 22.5% to 10.2% between 2011 and 2019. Remarkably, both papers contradict the WB’s official publications, which state that, as a result of Covid, poverty will increase by 88-115 million in 2020, and the largest contributor to this would be India. Naturally, the media in India has lapped up these conclusions, and purveyed them widely, to the delight of the government. Therefore, the papers deserve a thorough examination, both for their methodology and findings. First, Bhalla et al use National Accounts Statistics (NAS) to estimate private final consumption expenditure, then used to estimate poverty. Practically no one in the world uses NAS estimates of consumption. It overestimates consumption. That has never prevented Bhalla from using it. Second, they don’t use household surveys of consumption expenditure (CES), widely used for estimating poverty (including by the WB, relying upon Living Standard Measurement Surveys). Historically, in India, poverty estimation has used the CES. The last one, in 2017-18, followed demonetisation and a hurried GST, which adversely affected the unorganised sector that employs 85% of non-farm workers. That CES showed contraction of rural consumption by 8% and a mere 2% rise in urban, compared to 2011-12. Third, they ignore data on inequality, rising unemployment, falling employment rates, falling wage rates and rising food inflation. Please click here to read more.

Financial Express, 30 April, 2022, https://www.financialexpress.com/opinion/poor-economics-has-indias-poverty-really-fallen/2508324/lite/

Tagged with: World Bank International Monetary Fund IMF National Accounts Statistics MPCE Monthly Per Capita Expenditure Consumer Expenditure Survey National Statistical Office

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