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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Modi's Population Growth 'Problem' Is an Old Fallacy in a New Bottle -Srinivas Goli and Neha Jain

Modi's Population Growth 'Problem' Is an Old Fallacy in a New Bottle -Srinivas Goli and Neha Jain

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published Published on Jul 11, 2020   modified Modified on Jul 12, 2020

-TheWire.in

It took 100-120 years to double Europe's population but India is doing so in only 30-35 years – but there's a catch.

The ‘population growth’ debate in India gained in momentum after Prime Minister Narendra Modi expressed concern over a “population explosion” in his 2019 Independence Day speech. While Modi has appreciated India’s demographic dividend, he expressed anxiety on this occasion, and asked for measures to deal with the implied stress on the country’s supposedly limited resources. He also said those members of society who had small families were being patriotic.

However, on this World Population Day, we – a demographer and a population scientist – argue that Modi’s words were simply an old fallacy in a new bottle.

In the 21st century, population growth in India is not an economic or social development concern considering the speed with which India achieved its fertility transition and improved its ageing rate relative to many other countries, including developed ones. To see how, it’s important to read the data correctly.

The UN Projections (2019) suggest India’s total fertility rate – or TFR – fell from 5.9 children per woman in 1950 to 2.2 children per woman in 2020. This is very close to the replacement level fertility of 2.1 children per woman; replacement level fertility is, according to this definition, “the total fertility rate … at which a population exactly replaces itself from one generation to the next, without migration.”

After 2050, the TFR is expected to stabilise at 1.7 children per woman. Estimates based on the Sample Registration System also support the same conclusion.

Please click here to read more.


TheWire.in, 11 July, 2020, https://thewire.in/health/world-population-day-india-population-growth-replacement-level-fertility


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