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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Preparing for the floods -G Anand & AJ James

Preparing for the floods -G Anand & AJ James

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published Published on Sep 20, 2018   modified Modified on Sep 20, 2018
-The Hindu

Kerala has a unique opportunity to put in place climate-resilient water management

The recent floods in Kerala saw heroic rescues from raging rivers swollen by unprecedented rains — and the opening of shutters of major dams. There were allegations of ‘human blunders’ while the government said it could have done little else. The truth is that India has not learnt its lessons from recent floods, in Assam, Bihar and Tamil Nadu, and without addressing the underlying causes, history will repeat itself; if not in Kerala, elsewhere.

Three factors stand out.

Reluctant dam managers

In Kerala, as elsewhere, more flooding was caused by emergency releases from dams that were full. Despite forecasts of more rain, there were no controlled releases. World Bank analysis while preparing the National Hydrology Project (NHP) in 2015 showed that although weather forecasts are more accurate now, dam managers (especially bureaucrats) are reluctant to authorise advance controlled releases.

This is partly because operating schedules are not based on predicted rainfall. These usually specify that dams must be filled up as soon as possible (because rain is not guaranteed later in the season) and must be full by the end of the monsoon (for the summer). But the world has moved to dynamic reservoir operations based on weather forecasts. While Bhakra dam’s managers switched to this after much persuasion, others in India have not because of the memory of notoriously inaccurate weather forecasts.

The political leadership and the bureaucracy too do not tolerate mistakes. Therefore, dam managers are reluctant to risk their careers and order controlled releases in advance.

The NHP is improving hydro-meteorological and weather forecasting systems across India but unless dam managers feel free to take credible risks, these will not be used for dynamic reservoir operations. A ‘plan B’ is also needed for water scarcities such as basin-scale water modelling and analysis supporting contingency planning (inter-basin transfers, linking canals to intermediate storage structures, and water re-allocation to higher-priority uses). None of these exist in India today.

Please click here to read more.

The Hindu, 20 September, 2018, https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/preparing-for-the-floods/article24988789.ece?homepage=true


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