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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Private forecaster sees monsoon above normal this year -Vinson Kurian

Private forecaster sees monsoon above normal this year -Vinson Kurian

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published Published on Mar 19, 2018   modified Modified on Mar 19, 2018
-The Hindu Business Line

WRMS forecasts deficit rains for Rajasthan and Tamil Nadu

Thiruvananthapuram: In what is seen as the first official outlook for year 2018 monsoon, private forecaster Weather Risk Management Services (WRMS) has said that the June-September rainfall would be largely on the ‘positive side of normal’ (normal to above normal).

The forecast comes in the backdrop of a season that flattered to deceive in the just past year, recording only 95 per cent of the normal in contrast to early projections by the India Met Department of a likely surplus.

Weak La Nina

The monthly precipitation forecasts for this year are based on NOAA/CPC CFSV2 ensemble model products dated February 27, according to Sonu Agrawal, Managing Director, WRMS.

The WRMS processes the NOAA (National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration of the US) CFSV2 model and adds statistical and synoptic interpretations to provide long-range weather forecasts.

Providing some background, Kanti Prasad, Senior Consultant, WRMS, said that outlook by US agencies (IRI/CPC) as on mid-February 2018 indicates that the tropical Pacific reflected a moderate to weak La Nina conditions.

The official CPC/IRI outlook calls for La Nina continuing through at least early spring, followed by a likely return to neutral conditions (neither La Nina nor alter ego El Nino) around mid-spring.

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The Hindu Business Line, 16 March, 2018, https://www.thehindubusinessline.com/economy/agri-business/private-forecaster-sees-monsoon-above-normal-this-year/article23274387.ece?homepage=true


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