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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | RBI surveys a wake-up call for the Narendra Modi government -Manas Chakravarty

RBI surveys a wake-up call for the Narendra Modi government -Manas Chakravarty

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published Published on Aug 8, 2017   modified Modified on Aug 8, 2017
-Livemint.com

The RBI survey for June 2017 shows people are as unhappy with their income growth, employment and economic well-being as they were before the Narendra Modi government came to power

Perceptions matter. The government of the day will be able to garner more support if people feel their incomes are increasing or their employment prospects have improved. True, non-economic factors matter a lot and, throughout history, the ability to stage circuses has been as important for governments as providing bread. But economic factors play a big role in people’s sense of well-being and the latest Reserve Bank of India (RBI) surveys should be a wake-up call for the central government.

For example, shouldn’t the government be concerned that in the June 2017 RBI survey on consumer confidence, the percentage of respondents who said that their incomes had decreased from a year ago was more than in September 2013, during the depths of the balance-of-payments crisis? Should it not worry them that the percentage of people polled who said their incomes had increased from a year ago was lower than in December 2013 and March 2014, when the disenchantment with the United Progressive Alliance, or UPA government, was at its peak? As Chart 1 shows, the net response, or the percentage of people in the survey who said their incomes had increased compared to a year ago minus the percentage who say their incomes have decreased, is the lowest in many years.

The consumer confidence survey is conducted by RBI in the six cities of Bengaluru, Chennai, Hyderabad, Kolkata, Mumbai and New Delhi. It, therefore, reflects perceptions among the relatively well-off, who have been staunch supporters of the present government. Conditions in less developed areas are likely to be worse. Chart 2 shows the perceptions about employment in the survey. In June 2017, the percentage of households who said their employment conditions had worsened from a year ago was much higher than in March 2014, just before the last general elections. More importantly, the net responses (the percentage of households saying their employment conditions have improved minus the percentage saying conditions have deteriorated) have been negative for six consecutive quarters now. Surely that is a warning sign?

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Livemint.com, 8 August, 2017, http://www.livemint.com/Opinion/9VrEH0HoBJFaNjwxsBWOvJ/RBI-surveys-a-wakeup-call-for-the-Narendra-Modi-govt.html


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