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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Recovery analysis that points out what India got wrong -Suvojit Chattopadhyay

Recovery analysis that points out what India got wrong -Suvojit Chattopadhyay

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published Published on Oct 18, 2022   modified Modified on Oct 18, 2022

-The Hindu

Being fiscally conservative resulted in a rise in extreme poverty, with there being no signs of any course correction

A recent World Bank report, titled “Correcting Course”, captures the impact of the COVID-19 pandemic on global poverty. The number of people living in extreme poverty rose by seven crore million in 2020, as the global poverty rate rose from 8.4% in 2019 to 9.3% in 2020. This is the first time in two decades that the poverty rate has gone up. Global inequalities have widened, evident in the relative impacts felt on incomes in the richest countries as opposed to the poorest; and, unsurprisingly, economic recovery has been similarly uneven.

The report focuses on fiscal policy as an instrument for governments in dealing with crises such as the pandemic. Poorer countries were unable to use fiscal policy as effectively, and thus unable to offset the impact of the pandemic to a much lesser degree than richer countries. The report identifies three priorities for fiscal policy for governments to aid with post-pandemic recovery: Targeted subsidies that benefit the poor; public investment to build resilience in the long term; and revenue mobilisation that should rely on progressive direct taxation rather than indirect taxes.

The focus on fiscal policy has merit. A recent ODI paper, “Fiscal policy and income inequality: The role of taxes and social spending”, aggregates evidence on social spending and taxes from across the world and comes to a similar conclusion regarding the importance of fiscal policy in post-pandemic recovery.

How India fared

So how did India fare? And how does our policy response stack up, given the lessons identified in the reports mentioned above? India’s economy continues to be sluggish in 2022, and one should look back at the policy choices that were made back in 2020. The World Bank report relies on the Consumer Pyramids Household Survey (CPHS) by the Centre for Monitoring Indian Economy (CMIE), in the absence of official poverty data since 2011. By their estimate, 5.6 crore people are likely to have slipped into poverty as India’s GDP fell by 7.5% in FY2020-21. The population below poverty line in India stood at 10% in 2020.

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The Hindu, 18 October, 2022, https://www.thehindu.com/opinion/op-ed/recovery-analysis-that-points-out-what-india-got-wrong/article66022869.ece?homepage=true


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