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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Revised back-series GDP data poses a problem for SBI -- how did we really perform? -Mahua Venkatesh

Revised back-series GDP data poses a problem for SBI -- how did we really perform? -Mahua Venkatesh

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published Published on Nov 30, 2018   modified Modified on Nov 30, 2018
-ThePrint.in

SBI report says bank’s performance will have to be rewritten based on the new data and this can be contentious due to questions over credibility.

New Delhi:
The Narendra Modi government’s revised set of back-series GDP data, which slashed the average rate of growth during the UPA regime, pose “reconciliation problems regarding micro and macro data interpretation”, a State Bank of India (SBI) report said Thursday.

A careful data interpretation will be required to vet the new set of figures, the SBI report said.

“Any rebasing exercise also leads to some rewriting of the performance and this, quite naturally, raises a point of contention for the economists — which version is more credible and trustworthy for arriving at the forward projections,” the report added.

The first set of draft data was released in July, and it had pegged UPA-era growth rate at 7.75 per cent. The new revised data now puts that at 6.82 per cent. The NDA growth rate has been pegged at 7.35 per cent.

Niti Aayog chief Rajiv Kumar and Finance Minister Arun Jaitley defended the Central Statistics Office and its new set of data, but the SBI report has raised questions over the GDP growth figures in 2006-07 and 2015-16.

For both financial years, the economic growth figure is about the same at 8 per cent while most other economic indicators are diverse.

Link with bank credit


The investment rate in 2006-07 was 36 per cent, bank credit 28.5 per cent and sales of commercial vehicle was up by 32 per cent. In 2015-16, the investment rate was 32.3 per cent, bank credit stood at 10.9 per cent while sales of commercial vehicles grew by 12 per cent.

However, the new government data calculates the GDP in FY07 at 8.1 per cent and at 8.2 per cent in FY16.

The report has raised questions over the criticality and co-relation of bank credit with economic growth.

“Does it mean link between the bank credit and GDP has weakened over the years as banks have started accommodating companies through other sources like commercial paper (CP) and bonds?” the report questioned.

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ThePrint.in, 30 November, 2018, https://theprint.in/economy/revised-back-series-gdp-data-poses-a-problem-for-sbi-how-did-we-really-perform/156955/


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