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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Science and the layman by SL Rao

Science and the layman by SL Rao

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published Published on Dec 13, 2009   modified Modified on Dec 13, 2009


Governments and people have to make choices about accepting new scientific developments into their daily lives. Many attribute high levels of objectivity and integrity to scientists, which is not true of many of them. Scientists have been known to manipulate results to their advantage. Scientific issues are often complex, there are differing views among scientists and the layman finds it difficult to decide which scientific course is harmful or beneficial. Decision-makers also make wrong decisions based on faulty understanding of scientific issues. Recent examples are debates on the genetic modification of food crops, nuclear energy, the hydrogen bomb and climate change. And on the other side, the Indian Neutrino Observatory. Opposing points of view among industrialists, scientists and the government’s decision-makers have proved unreliable guides to these issues.

Nuclear energy does not cause the global warming that burning coal for generating electricity does. But public concern in the media raises doubts about safety and the high costs of nuclear plants and nuclear power. Atomic plants can cause lethal radiation. The after-effects can lead to sterility and painful death. Many have argued that nuclear energy is more costly than other kinds of energy. High and rising costs of imported plants, expensive safety measures and the safe storage of long-lasting nuclear waste until safe methods of disposal are found are serious concerns. Our engineers are accused of lying about the safety records of our nuclear plants. Dual use of enriched uranium for producing energy as well as bombs enables hiding the substantial costs under defence expenditures. And yet, India is going in for a massive expansion in the production of nuclear energy. The lack of transparency befuddles the layman.

Similarly, nuclear scientists are arguing whether India actually has a hydrogen bomb or whether the last test was a ‘fizzle’. Some scientists have said that the Atomic Energy Commission is really not competent to judge since it is composed of bureaucrats and engineers, and practically no nuclear scientists. The layman does not know whom to trust with giving facts and objective judgments.

There are similar opposing positions about genetically modified seeds for agricultural products, especially food. Fertilizers and chemicals in foods can be dangerous for our health, damaging to soils. We are better off with foods grown organically. But organic foods are more expensive and cannot presently feed all of us. Genetic modification means creating new versions of life. Some feel that scientists are playing god. Crucially, we do not know how much reliable testing there has been to ensure that there are no long-term adverse side effects from genetically modified foods on humanity and the environment. As with pesticides, genetically modified seeds that are pest-resistant could create more powerful pests. Their high cost is another problem, especially in India where fakery is common with many products. Our poor administration is unable to prevent such fakes. Farmers borrow to buy fertilizers, pesticides or seeds. When these products turn out to be fake, resulting in crop failures, the farmers are unable to repay their debts. This has led to farmers’ suicides.

Some scientists and environmentalists have questioned the credentials of those who are testing these seeds. They would like the tests to be conducted by scientists directly involved in the development of such seeds and not scientists from more distant expertise. The layman is unable to make sense of the credentials of the testers. Many also argue that the scientists working on the development of these seeds work for big companies and have vested interests in finding favourable results from the genetic modifications. So their tests cannot be accepted.

Yet, genetically modified Bt Cotton is said to have resulted in a substantial rise in productivity and profit to farmers. In the United States of America, much of the maize grown is genetically modified. Many millions of acres all over the world have been planted with these seeds. Surely, by now, there must be sufficient evidence as to whether they are harmful to humans? But the layman only gets to hear strong opinions, not credible evidence.

Major changes in climate are now obvious even to the illiterate and uneducated. The changes in rainfall patterns, rising sea levels, changes in the difference in temperatures between night and day and so on have made for a complex set of disturbances. This is anthropogenic or man-made climate change. The seasons are becoming less predictable, temperatures vary wildly and the monsoons come much earlier or much later than before. The regularity of seasons in India, embedded in our literature and religious festivals, seems much less predictable today.

John Vidal writes in The Guardian, “On a 1,000-mile journey from the world’s greatest water source in the Himalayas, down rivers and then by train through Nepal, India and Bangladesh to the Bay of Bengal, we saw evidence of profound changes in weather patterns right across South Asia. Wherever we went we were told of significant temperature increases, and found governments slowly waking up to the threat of climate change and communities having to respond in any way they could to erratic rains and more serious droughts, floods and storms.”

As the Arctic ice melts rapidly, countries are already queuing to exploit its immense mineral wealth, hitherto beyond reach. The melting of the Arctic will have horrendous effects on low-lying countries. Even Mumbai, Chennai and Calcutta will be badly affected. Monsoon failures or floods will harm agriculture, the livelihood of 60 per cent of our population. But climate sceptics among scientists claim that climate change is a false alarm. The hacking of the electronic and email storage of East Anglia University, a major centre for research on climate change, shows that pro-climate-change scientists concealed data and asked such contrary data to be kept secret.

A Gallup study of over 206,000 citizens from 128 countries shows that more than half of the world’s greenhouse emissions come from five nations: Japan, China, Russia, India and the United States of America. In terms of percentage, awareness of climate change in Japan is 99, the US 97, Russia 85, 62 in China and 35 in India. Those considering greenhouse emissions as serious threat is 80 per cent in Japan, 63 in the US, 39 in Russia, 29 in India and 21 in China. The climate sceptics are confusing the layman even when he recognizes dramatic changes in climate.

The US and other rich countries have brought about drastic climate change because of their energy-intensive economies, consumption and lifestyles. Improvement in living conditions in India demands much more energy and the burning of coal. Most Indians cannot afford to pay the price even of electricity from coal, let alone solar or wind power. Are scientists who are climate sceptics controlled by industries in rich countries that want status quo?

Scientists are also short changed by decision-makers. The Indian Neutrino Observatory — by Indian standards, a mega project with a projected investment of Rs 900 crore — was to be situated in a tunnel, already dug by the Tamil Nadu Electricity Board in the Nilgiris, near Masinagudi. Ecological implications were thoroughly studied. The ministry of environment commissioned a thorough study by a top Indian scientist well-known for his work on elephants who has worked in the area for nearly three decades. In spite of this, the ministry has stopped the project without giving any reasons. Scientists in Canada, Italy and Japan have a head start of almost a decade.

Neither scientists nor decision-makers have brought clarity to issues. The layman needs honest answers and should not accept scientists as gospel. Science needs total transparency of results. Scientists must be educated to respect people and not hide or twist results that are unfavourable. Decision-makers in governments must certainly be better educated and not become loyal to one or other scientific group.
 
The author is former director- general, National Council for Applied Economic Research
 

The Telegraph, 14 December, 2009, http://www.telegraphindia.com/1091214/jsp/opinion/story_11852479.jsp
 

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