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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Seasonal variations in food prices dropped: RBI study

Seasonal variations in food prices dropped: RBI study

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published Published on Oct 18, 2011   modified Modified on Oct 18, 2011
-The Economic Times
 
If food inflation seems to be pinching more, it is because vegetable prices barely decline in winters, milk rises through the year and egg prices remain high in summers - all because of rising demand. 

Over the years, the seasonal variation in prices has dropped and consumers do not have the option of shifting to cheaper produce to keep daily costs down, says a recent Reserve Bank of India study. "Seasonal variation for wholesale price index for 'all commodities' remained low and declined in recent years," it notes. Sunil Sinha, senior economist, Crisil, says: "People are feeling the pinch of inflation more because of the declining seasonality in prices." 

The study shows that the seasonal variation in prices of proteinbased foods has been on the decline in the past 15 years, confirming the rise in demand because of higher incomes. 

Seasonal variations largely result from climatic conditions in the case of food articles, though festivals can also at times cause prices to spike but these variations tend to moderate quickly. The RBI study uses an elaborate methodology (X-12 ARIMA) to measure seasonality, but a simple difference between peak and trough prices shows the trend well. NR Bhanumurthy of the National Institute of Public Finance and Policy says prices have been moving up consistently during the last few years rather than going through seasonal variations, a trend that people have come to expect. 

This is borne out by the postmonsoon experience last year, when despite bountiful rains prices continue to rise. A repeat seems to be playing out this year as well. Vegetable prices have already risen by 64% since March end. Inflation in vegetable prices is running at 13.01% while the food inflation is 9.32% as of October 1. The analysis of seasonal changes over times allows policymakers to pick up early trends that are long-term in nature. 

Economists contend that the increase in prices consistently is due to the structural shift in demand where people have started demanding certain food items more through the year while supply hasn't been able to keep pace. "Inflation has become structural in nature," said Indranil Pan, chief economist, Kotak Bank. 

The high input costs and rising wages could also be keeping prices up through the year. DK Joshi, chief economist of Crisil, does not see anything wrong with the decline in seasonality, but calls for addressing the structural pressure that is causing prices to rise steadily. 

In the long run, only higher public investment in agriculture and attracting private investments can help improve agriculture efficiency and increasing production. "There is a need to improve the production and marketing efficiency of these commodities. Role of technologies to reduce cost and increase production, and effectively linking production centers with the consumers, would control the prices of these commodities," said PK Joshi, agricultural economist at IFPRI.


The Economic Times, 18 October, 2011, http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/news/economy/indicators/seasonal-variations-in-food-prices-dropped-rbi-study/articleshow/10396223.cms


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