Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 150
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Deprecated (16384): The ArrayAccess methods will be removed in 4.0.0.Use getParam(), getData() and getQuery() instead. - /home/brlfuser/public_html/src/Controller/ArtileDetailController.php, line: 151
 You can disable deprecation warnings by setting `Error.errorLevel` to `E_ALL & ~E_USER_DEPRECATED` in your config/app.php. [CORE/src/Core/functions.php, line 311]
Warning (512): Unable to emit headers. Headers sent in file=/home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php line=853 [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 48]
Warning (2): Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at /home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php:853) [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 148]
Warning (2): Cannot modify header information - headers already sent by (output started at /home/brlfuser/public_html/vendor/cakephp/cakephp/src/Error/Debugger.php:853) [CORE/src/Http/ResponseEmitter.php, line 181]
LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Shackles of subsidy by MK Venu

Shackles of subsidy by MK Venu

Share this article Share this article
published Published on Feb 13, 2012   modified Modified on Feb 13, 2012
-The Indian Express
 
Pranab Mukherjee should use his waking hours to signal bold reforms

Until a few years ago no one really thought that governments could go bust. But the deepening sovereign debt crises of Europe have now persuaded us that governments can go bust if their debt levels cross a certain danger mark.

What is that danger mark remains a matter of research by economists around the world. Some studies have concluded that when the government’s total debt crosses 85 to 90 per cent of the GDP then growth begins to taper off on a more permanent basis. Most eurozone economies are past that danger level for some time now. Historically, Japan got into a long-term low growth trap after its government debt had exceeded 90 per cent of GDP in the mid-1990s. The US, during its high-growth period in the 1980s and 1990s, had a reasonably moderate public debt level of below 40 per cent of GDP. However, in recent years, the US too has crossed the danger mark and its debt is now nearly 100 per cent of its GDP of about $15 trillion. Most economists agree that the US too may have entered a long-term low-growth trap.

It is against this backdrop that high government borrowings and its possible negative impact on growth have become a subject of intense discussion in India as well. The Indian government’s debt to GDP ratio is 70 per cent but could deteriorate to the danger mark rapidly if the politics of entitlement becomes more widespread without other growth-oriented reforms being pursued. Finance Minister Pranab Mukherjee has said he has sleepless nights when he looks at all the subsidy commitments made by the government in recent times. Many of these entitlements are politically difficult to withdraw. The combined fiscal deficit of the Centre and states together stands at about 8.5 per cent of GDP now, up from less than 5 per cent in 2007-08.

Consequently, if you ask any economist, businessman or global investor as to what is the single biggest issue the forthcoming budget must address, the answer will be — runaway borrowings by the government. Unfortunately, the history of public finance management suggests fiscal deficit (government borrowing) remains a less discussed subject during boom periods when consistently high growth reduces government borrowings as a ratio of GDP. Fiscal deficit starts causing worry in relatively low-growth periods when government borrowings rise as a proportion of GDP, as is happening now.

For instance, if one looks at the start of the economic liberalisation 20 years ago, the Centre’s gross borrowing was at an unprecedented 6.4 per cent of GDP in 1990-91 when the economy was gripped by an external payment crisis and GDP growth was zero. Structural economic reforms followed and the next six years saw average fiscal deficit at around 4 to 4.5 per cent of GDP. Needles to say, this period was also marked by consistently higher GDP growth of 6.5 to 7 per cent.

So whenever there is a dose of economic reforms, fiscal deficit tapers off as one experiences some years of reasonably good GDP growth. Low levels of annual borrowing after a period of good growth also allows the government enough fiscal headroom to administer counter-cyclical growth stimulus when there is an economic downturn caused by local or global factors. India could administer counter-cyclical stimulus in 1998 after the Asian financial crises took many economies down because the government had a lot of fiscal headroom, having brought the fiscal deficit down to 4 per cent of GDP in 1997. The fiscal deficit gradually climbed back to 6 per cent of GDP in the five years after 1997 as most Asian economies, including India, struggled to recover. Some more structural reforms followed during this recovery period of 1998 to 2003. So while the fiscal deficit did climb back to a high of 6 per cent of GDP by 2002, the stage had been set for the next phase of growth because of reforms carried out in the previous four years. This, coupled with the supply of global liquidity from the West, kicked off the next big boom phase from 2003 to 2008 when GDP grew on average at 8.5 per cent. And sure enough, the old fiscal cycle repeated itself. At the end of this boom phase, the fiscal deficit was down to a low of 2.5 per cent of GDP in 2007-08. Again enough headroom was created to administer the next round of fiscal stimulus as the world was to reel from the worst economic crisis post the Great Depression. And expectedly, the UPA administered a strong dose of fiscal stimulus in the two years after the 2008 global economic crisis.

However, the UPA faltered badly on one count. During previous down-cycle episodes, there was fiscal expansion invariably accompanied by a new dose of reforms. However, this time round, fiscal headroom was used but was not accompanied by any fresh thinking on reforms. The UPA muddled through the critical period of 2008-09 to 2011-12.The fiscal deficit has climbed back to about 5.8 per cent of GDP at present, especially if one takes into account the big revenue slippages, higher oil subsidies and other hidden expenditure commitments this fiscal.

GDP growth has also slipped back to 6.9 per cent this fiscal after recovering to over 8 per cent in 2010-11. India has actually witnessed a kind of double-dip in growth deceleration because the advanced GDP estimate of 6.9 per cent for 2011-12 is roughly the same as the 6.8 per cent GDP that India registered just after the 2008 global economic crisis.

Mukherjee’s job becomes tougher because he has spent much of the fiscal ammunition in reviving growth after the 2008 global economic crisis but the growth rate is back where it was in 2008-09. Now there is no fiscal headroom left either. This is the kind of situation that no finance minister would want to grapple with. With the fiscal headroom virtually exhausted the only other option Mukherjee is left with is to deliver a strong dose of growth-enhancing reforms, something that was done during all previous down-cycle episodes. Instead of spending sleepless nights, Mukherjee may use his waking hours to signal some bold reforms over the next three years. The instruments are all there in his bag, ready to be used. Time-bound implementation of Goods and Services Tax (GST) and Direct Tax Code (DTC) would be half the job done. There can’t be a bigger fiscal upside than bringing into the tax net large parts of the black economy through the GST mechanism. This will also make the opposition, which has been harping on black money, happy. The forthcoming budget will also test the capacity of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh to reinvent himself as an economist and a man of ideas.

mk.venu@expressindia.com

The Indian Express, 13 February, 2012, http://www.indianexpress.com/news/shackles-of-subsidy/911256/


Related Articles

 

Write Comments

Your email address will not be published. Required fields are marked *

*

Video Archives

Archives

Im4Change.org हिंदी वेबसाइट का परिचय. Short Video on im4change.org...

Im4Change.org हिंदी वेबसाइट का परिचय. Short Video on im4change.org...

"Session 1: Scope of IDEA and AgriStack" in Exploring...

"Session 2: Farmer Centric Digitalisation in Agriculture" in Exploring...

"Session 3: Future of Digitalisation in Agriculture" in Exploring...

Objectives | About Us | Workshops | Disclaimer
share on Facebook
Twitter
RSS
Feedback
Read Later

Contact Form

Please enter security code
      Close