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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | Slowing Economy, Rising Joblessness -Subodh Varma

Slowing Economy, Rising Joblessness -Subodh Varma

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published Published on Mar 2, 2019   modified Modified on Mar 2, 2019
-Newsclick.in

New GDP numbers show the deep agrarian crisis and an economy in doldrums, while unemployment continues to grow.

Advance estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the current year 2018-19, and estimates for the third quarter (Sept-Dec 2018) show unmistakeable signs of a slowing economy, despite the flawed method of calculating these estimates. The country’s economy will grow by 7% in the current year which will end this March. Last year it grew by 7.2%.

More importantly, growth in the third quarter slowed down to 6.6% compared to 7% in the preceding quarter and 7.7% in the corresponding third quarter of 2017-18. Third quarter growth is the lowest in six consecutive quarters. Analysts expect that this slowdown will last till mid-year at least.

Looking deeper than these headline numbers, a much more serious picture emerges. Agriculture Gross Value Added (GVA) grew at a stunningly low rate of 2.7% in the third quarter, compared to 4.2% in the preceding quarter and 5.2% in the first quarter of 2018-19. This is not some seasonal dip: in the third quarter of 2017-18, GVA growth was 4.6%, almost double that of the current rate. This poor growth in agriculture is being caused by low prices of produce and low wages – both issues being the ones that farmers have been agitating about. But the Modi government thinks it can bumble its way through by doling out Rs. 2,000 to every small and marginal farmer.

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Newsclick.in, 1 March, 2019, https://www.newsclick.in/gdp-growth-unemployment-rate-index-industrial-production-india-narendra-modi?fbclid=IwAR266WetY9U-B79TtLBCmQ7ZuufigTObApLqE9tMnMAnuaZsoEC-jCV6g2Y


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