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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | The Challenge Of Saying How Many Excess Deaths Could Be Due To Covid-19 -Rukmini S

The Challenge Of Saying How Many Excess Deaths Could Be Due To Covid-19 -Rukmini S

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published Published on Jun 26, 2021   modified Modified on Jun 28, 2021

-IndiaSpend.com

Five states saw over 460,000 excess deaths in the first five months of 2021, but the official Covid-19 toll in these states in this period accounts for only 6% of these excess deaths. How many of the remaining 94% are 'missed' Covid-19 deaths will not be easy to disentangle.

Chennai: Andhra Pradesh, Bihar, Kerala, Madhya Pradesh and Tamil Nadu saw over 460,000 excess deaths in the first five months of 2021, compared to a typical year. Yet the official Covid-19 death toll for these states in this period, which covers the peak second-wave months of the pandemic in India, accounts for just 6% of these excess deaths. How many of the remaining 94% are 'missed' Covid-19 deaths will be central to the debate over how well or poorly India handled the pandemic, but will not be easy to disentangle.

By the time India's first wave had receded, there was already reason to be sceptical about the numbers. For one, multiple states had admitted that they were using a stringent definition of a Covid-19 death: Only deaths of people who had tested positive for Covid-19, and had died soon after in hospital with a typical progression of disease, were being counted as Covid-19 deaths.

This despite the fact that India's official Indian Council of Medical Research guidelines included a World Health Organization code for recording suspected Covid-19 deaths: deaths of people with the symptoms, but who had not necessarily tested positive prior to death. Through the last year, no state has included a suspected Covid-19 death in its published data. "Including such deaths also would have helped in understanding the disease better and in taking appropriate clinical and public health actions," Prashant Mathur, director of the National Centre for Disease Informatics and Research who authored these guidelines told IndiaSpend.

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IndiaSpend.com, 26 June, 2021, https://www.indiaspend.com/covid-19/deaths-first-wave-second-wave-pandemic-757701?fbclid=IwAR0XQf0jZs-uf3N9SgW4xocoYdDLq9ux2wJrNAhfCRUD7R7NciOTD2ScExw


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