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LATEST NEWS UPDATES | The employment story reflected in NSS data: Jobless growth reversed-Santosh Mehrotra

The employment story reflected in NSS data: Jobless growth reversed-Santosh Mehrotra

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published Published on Jul 9, 2013   modified Modified on Jul 9, 2013
-The Economic Times


The latest round of NSS - the 68th employment-unemployment round - brings good news for jobs. The data for 2011-12 shows that total employment in the economy has risen from 460.2 million in 2009-10 to 472.9 million in just two years. This is good news compared to the previous five-year period that saw an increase of only 2.5 million jobs over 2004-05 and 2009-10.

Another piece of good news is that the pace of structural transformation in the economy - that is, a shift in employment out of agriculture towards industry and services - has gained pace. Employment in agriculture had been rising since Independence in absolute terms, and it rose by 21 million during 2000-05. But it fell during 2004-05 and 2009-10 by 14 million. It has since continued to decline.

During 2009-10 and 2011-12, agricultural employment fell by 13 million in absolute terms, the fastest decline in such employment. The share of agriculture in total employment was 60% in 1999-2000 and fell to 53% in the 10-year period ended 2009-10. In 2011-12, the share of agriculture in total employment stood at 49%, a four-percentage-point fall within two years.

One of the disturbing facts that the 2009-10 NSS data showed was that for the first time, manufacturing employment saw an absolute decline when the sector grew by over 9%. During 2004-05 and 2009-10, manufacturing employment fell by 5 million after having increased by 12 million in the first half of the decade. Also, services employment, which increased by over 18 million during 2000-05, rose by merely 3.5 million during 2005-10 even though services output grew by about 10% per annum during the period. The only saving grace was the construction sector that provided 18 million work opportunity during 2004-05 and 2009-10.

The good news continues when one looks at increasing industrial as well as services employment in 2011-12. During 2009-10 and 2011-12, industrial employment (manufacturing + non-manufacturing) grew by 14.5 million. While the break up between manufacturing and non-manufacturing sector employment is not given for 2011-12, it is expected that it is mostly in the construction sector.

During 2004-05 and 2009-10, it was the 18 million increase in construction employment, offset by a 5 million decline in manufacturing jobs, that resulted in an increase of 13 million jobs in the five-year period in the industrial sector as a whole.

Services sector employment has witnessed an overwhelming increase in these two years. While it grew by merely 3.5 million during 2004-05 and 2009-10, it rose by 11 million in just two years, during 2009-10 and 2011-12.

The rise in regular and salaried employment highlighted by this latest NSS round is also noteworthy. During this two-year period, regular workers increased by 13 million. This is good news given that regular wage/salaried employment is considered employment with better work conditions and some measure of social security. However, unlike the earlier five-year period of 2005-10, self-employment increased by 11 million and casual workers declined by 12 million.

Men and women continue to fare differently in terms of job opportunities. During 2000-05, 26 million females joined the workforce. More than 90% of the incremental workforce among rural females became self-employed in agriculture - a sign of rural distress. In the latter half of the decade, by contrast, while male employment increased by 23.2 million, female employment declined by 20.7 million. Around 20 million rural females withdrew over 2005-10 from the workforce, and most of them from agriculture.

Even during 2009-10 and 2011-12, the female labour force participation rate, especially for rural females, continues to fall. However, compared to a withdrawal of 21 million females from the workforce in the second half of the decade, there is an increase of about 1.5 million female workers, guided by greater opportunities in urban areas, during 2010-12.

Thus, the five-year period between 2004-05 and 2009-10, recording the highest growth rates of over 8% per annum, experienced jobless growth, except in construction. Findings from the latest survey seem to suggest the reversal of this phenomenon.

(The writer is director-general, Institute of Applied Manpower Research, Planning Commission. Co-authored with Ankita Gandhi, assistant director at the institute)


The Economic Times, 9 July, 2013, http://economictimes.indiatimes.com/opinion/comments-analysis/the-employment-story-reflected-in-nss-data-jobless-growth-reversed/articleshow/20979128.cms


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